1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fell continuously this week, and the price fell broadly. On November 14, the price of pure benzene was 7450-7650 yuan / ton (average price 7560 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (November 21), the price of pure benzene was 6700-7250 yuan / ton (average price 6920 yuan / ton), with an average price of 640 yuan / ton or 8.47% lower than that of last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 63.36%.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil fell in shock this week, the price weakened broadly, and the cost support collapsed. Within the week, it was reported that the No. 4 atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical had been fed, and the supply of pure benzene increased in the later stage; The purchase enthusiasm of downstream is not high, the inventory of Shandong local refining enterprises is accumulated, the cargo from East China arrives at the port, and the inventory at the main port is increased; The continuous decline of downstream styrene also depressed the market mentality. This week, Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 600 yuan / ton twice to 6950-7000 yuan / ton.

In terms of external trading, Asian pure benzene fell in the external trading this week. On Friday (November 19), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $938 / T, down US $23 / T, or 2.39%, month on month (MOM) on November 12; The reference import price in East China was US $950 / T, down US $45 / T or 4.52% month on month on November 12.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fluctuated and fell this week, and the price fell broadly. The epidemic situation in Europe worsens again, and the demand for crude oil may be frustrated; The United States may release strategic oil reserves, and the number of active oil rigs in the United States continues to increase this week. The possibility of an increase in crude oil supply also depresses oil prices. Month on month (MOM) on November 12, Brent fell 3.28 USD / barrel, or 3.99%; WTI fell $4.69/barrel, or 5.81%.

Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene fell continuously this week. The price of sample enterprises was 9025 yuan / ton on November 12 and 8575 yuan / ton on November 19, down 4.99% from last week and 3.65% from the same period last year. Energy and chemical commodities are generally weak, the basic expectation of styrene is weak, the mentality of merchants is damaged, and there is a lack of bottom buying and price chasing cooperation in the field. Although the port continues to go to the warehouse sharply, styrene is weak due to the production of new units in December, increased supply and bearish overall capital market.

Aniline: the price of aniline stabilized after a wide decline this week. As of the 12th, the price in Shandong was 13000-13260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 13600-13700 yuan / ton, down 3.41% from last week, up 67.09% from the beginning of the year and 92.23% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the recent high gasoline price in the United States may still release strategic reserves. OPEC + still maintained the original production increase plan to support oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the downstream main product styrene: the cost side support of styrene is weakened. In addition, the supply is expected to increase, and the downstream spot demand continues to be weak. Overall, it is expected that there will be more negative aspects of styrene in the short term and will still be weak consolidation.

The recent trend of crude oil fluctuated and fell, or continue to be bad for the pure benzene market. The trend of styrene is weak, but some downstream units are expected to restart, and the demand for pure benzene may increase. This week, the price of pure benzene fell broadly or stimulated downstream purchase. It is expected that the decline of pure benzene will ease next week, dominated by weak consolidation. Pay attention to downstream market, domestic benzene plant dynamics, crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.