According to the price monitoring of business society, the domestic PTA market continued to fall slightly this week (November 1-5). The average price in the spot market was 4919 yuan / ton, down 4.00% from the beginning of the week and up 52.19% year-on-year. Negative factors such as weak crude oil and contradiction between supply and demand have led to the PTA Market falling for four consecutive weeks.

In terms of supply and demand, Sichuan energy investment 1 million tons and Hengli Petrochemical 2.2 million tons of units have been overhauled successively, and the industrial starting load is around 82. However, the PTA market is still in oversupply. Although the number of futures warehouse receipts continues to rise, dispersing the pressure of some spot surplus, there are still secondhand goods selling and currently in the state of accumulating inventory.

Crude oil fell significantly this week after falling sharply due to the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the reduction of bond purchase scale. Although the results of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting were implemented, the increase in production remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. However, it is reported that Saudi Arabia’s oil production will soon exceed 10 million barrels / day, the supply is tight, the expectation is cooling, and the oil price is under pressure. As of November 4, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.81/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $80.54/barrel.

The downstream polyester production and marketing is generally flat, the industry operating rate is about 80%, and the factory has limited enthusiasm for PTA spot procurement. As the market price of raw materials continues to decline, the terminal weaving factories are more cautious and wait-and-see, there are few new orders, and maintain the early order production. The comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 65%, the polyester market is gradually weakening, and the price of each product is down by 2-5% this week.

Business analysts believe that the overhaul of some PTA devices and planned overhaul may delay the speed of PTA inventory accumulation. Crude oil demand is improving, there is no basis for continuous decline, the oil market is cautiously bullish, and the cost side is still supported. However, the current downstream polyester production and marketing is not prosperous and the overall operating load is not high, so it is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. Demand is poor, and PTA prices are expected to remain volatile and decline in the short term.