Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average early trading price of silver market on September 30 was 4585 yuan / kg, a decrease of 9.82% compared with the average early trading price of spot market in early September (September 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 17.39%.

On September 30, the spot market price of gold was 363.44 yuan / g, a decrease of from the early average price of 380.20 yuan / g in the spot market price in early September (9.1); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 7.45%.

Precious metal prices fell endlessly in September, mainly based on investment factors, and the trading logic revolved around the Fed’s interest rate decision.

International macro news

The results of the FOMC meeting in September were generally hawkish. Although the specific taper schedule was not announced, the advance of the expectation of interest rate increase in the dot matrix and Powell’s statement on ending the bond purchase as early as November and mid-2022 at the press conference after the meeting showed a lot of hawkish atmosphere. In its September resolution, the Federal Reserve first determined that it might adjust the pace of asset purchase soon. After the meeting, chairman Powell made it more clear that it might take action even if there was no strong employment data support at the end of the year. The Federal Reserve may announce taper at the FOMC meeting in November at the earliest and officially implement it in December, and end QE around June next year. According to the latest dot matrix, most officials predict that interest rates will be increased by 2023, but some officials support one or two interest rate increases in 2022. In the future, the market’s attention will shift from taper to interest rate hike.

Overall, the improvement of U.S. economic data in September boosted the expectation of the Federal Reserve to tighten the money supply. Coupled with weak fundamentals such as capital sentiment and physical demand, precious metal prices were relatively weak in September.

The dollar index strengthened

Since September 6, the US dollar index has stopped falling and bucked the trend, restraining precious metals to a certain extent.

Recently, gold has fallen compared with silver

The gold silver ratio has an increasing trend, which is mainly based on the good bearable performance of gold in the near future, and the recent decline of silver has expanded significantly. The rebound momentum of gold weakened, and the support for silver price weakened. In terms of gold silver ratio, silver valuation is still neutral and high. The overall trend of gold silver ratio since March is upward, which may indicate that risk aversion has increased and inflation expectations have weakened.

Future forecast

Recently, the price of precious metals is still weak.