1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene fell this week. On August 1, the price of pure benzene was 7900-8150 yuan / ton (average price 8170 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (August 8), the price of pure benzene was 7450-7700 yuan / ton (average price 7620 yuan / ton). The average price fell 550 yuan / ton, or 6.73%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 122.16%.

2、 Analysis and review

During the week, the prices of crude oil and Asian pure benzene fell sharply. Affected by the epidemic in China, the logistics in many places was limited and the shipment of enterprises was blocked; The downstream operating rate decreased, the production of new units was delayed, the demand decreased, and multiple negative factors suppressed, and pure benzene continued to weaken this week. This week, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was lowered twice, a total of 450 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market on Friday (August 6) was US $979 / T, down US $31 / T or 3.07% month on week compared with July 30; The reference import price in East China was US $996 / T, down US $26.5/t or 2.59% month on month on July 30.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta mutant virus has suppressed the atmosphere of the crude oil market, OPEC + has gradually increased production since August, and negative factors such as the increase of U.S. crude oil inventory have suppressed, resulting in a sharp decline in international oil prices this week. On July 30, Brent fell $5.63 / barrel, or 7.38%; WTI fell US $5.67/barrel, or 7.67%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene continued to decline this week. On August 6, the price of sample enterprises was 9000 yuan / ton, down 3.61% from last week and up 67.7% from the same period last year. At the beginning of August, the port inventory increased, and there was still expectation of accumulated inventory in a short time. In addition, the supply of Gulei styrene was increasing, and the downstream demand was general. It was mainly just needed to purchase, and the replenishment was limited.

Aniline: positive: the price of raw materials fell, and the profit space of aniline rebounded; The inventory of aniline enterprises is not high, and some units are still in shutdown. Bad: affected by the epidemic in some areas, logistics is limited, factory shipments are blocked, and prices are down slightly. The price in Shandong is 10400-10600 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing is 10600-10700 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from last week.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the global spread of mutated virus and the increase of crude oil production may depress the oil price, and the oil price trend is expected to be weak next week. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: in August, the supply of styrene will increase. The downstream maintenance units have been restarted one after another. It just needs to recover, but the increment is expected to be limited. In addition, the upstream pure benzene is expected to be weak, and the short-term styrene market is expected to be weak and volatile.

Although the shipment of pure benzene enterprises is blocked and the downstream demand is insufficient, the price continues to decline, and the downstream profit space rebounds, or stimulates purchase. It is expected that the pure benzene will fluctuate weakly next week. Pay attention to the impact of logistics, downstream market, domestic pure benzene plant dynamics, crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.