1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency: on August 9, the average price of domestic LNG was 5473.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.26% over the previous day, 6.35% over the beginning of the month and 121.59% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Looking back last week, the domestic LNG market showed an up-down-up trend. At the beginning of the week, the price continued to rise, but at the beginning of the week, the high level fell back. On August 3, the one-day decline exceeded 7%, and then made up a slight decline. At the weekend, the price stopped falling and rebounded, and the market rose again. On August 9, after the rise over the weekend, the domestic LNG market continued to rise. The prices of Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places generally increased, and some areas fell slightly, but there is no doubt that the market focus has shifted upward. This round of liquid prices stopped rising, benefiting from the cost support, the tight price of imported gas goods was boosted, and after the liquid price fell last week, the heat of downstream inquiry increased. At the same time, some liquid plants recently planned to shut down for maintenance, tighten the supply, lay more profits, and the domestic liquid price market continued to run strong in the off-season. At present, 5150-5550 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 5400-5550 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 5330-5630 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 5360-5520 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5350-5600 yuan / ton in Henan and 5200-5400 yuan / ton in Hebei. The inlet gas price is about 4600-5950 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price and export gas price increase hand in hand, and the price difference is small.

region Specifications August 9th August 6th Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 5150-5550 4850-5250 + 300/+300

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 5400-5550 4890-5100 + 510/+450

Shanxi liquified natural gas 5330-5630 4900-5300 + 430/+330

Ningxia liquified natural gas 5360-5520 5000-5100 + 360/+410

Henan liquified natural gas 5350-5600 5300-5500 + 50/+100

Hebei liquified natural gas 5200-5400 5300-5450 – 100/-50

The higher price of domestic liquefied natural gas has driven the rise of downstream products

At present, there is no transaction in the methanol market in central Shandong. The negotiated price of methanol market in southern Shandong increased by 10-20 yuan / ton to 2480-2500 yuan / ton. The factory offered cash exchange. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to about 2480 yuan / ton and sent it to cash exchange. The offer price of logistics goods is not available for the time being. Trading is limited. There is no transaction in the methanol market in northern Shandong.

Dichloromethane, on August 9, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong remained stable. At the beginning of the week, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong remained stable. Today, the manufacturers generally reported stability. The amount of ammonia in this area gradually accumulated. Although large factories are facing maintenance, due to the impact of the epidemic, the traffic is affected to a certain extent, the manufacturer’s shipment speed slows down and the inventory is significantly higher than that in the early stage. At present, the mainstream price in the region is 4650-4750 yuan / ton. It is expected that the overhaul unit will tighten the output, the ammonia volume will gradually decrease, and the price will stabilize or rebound.

On August 9, the urea market in Shandong fell, the price of upstream LNG fell slightly recently, and the cost support weakened. From the aspect of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. In terms of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, and the parking and maintenance plants are relatively concentrated. The daily output of domestic urea has decreased to about 138000 tons, with a significant reduction in daily output. In terms of transportation: affected by the epidemic situation in some areas, logistics and transportation are limited. On the whole, the urea cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, the urea supply is tight, and the logistics transportation is limited.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that: at present, the cost support is strong, and the high price of imported gas continues to boost the domestic liquid price. After the early price adjustment, the shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant has improved, and the sentiment of supporting the market is strong. In the short term, the domestic LNG market is strong, and the price continues to rise.