After the soaring price at the end of last year, the domestic acrylonitrile market has fluctuated slightly since the beginning of 2021. Before the deadline, the price of acrylonitrile in East China closed at 12200 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.4% during the year, basically in line with the price at the beginning of the year. In the near future, the maintenance of acrylonitrile plant is not much, and the downstream demand is relatively stable. In the long run, with the gradual increase of supply, the overall pressure of acrylonitrile industry is large.

In recent years, the domestic acrylonitrile production capacity has been steadily improved. According to statistics, in June 2020, the 260000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company was put into operation, making the total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity reach about 2600000 T / A. In 2021, the acrylonitrile industry will enter into the peak of new unit production. The units such as keluer phase II 130000t / A, sipang phase III 260000t / A and Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II 260000t / a are planned to be put into production within this year. By then, the market supply will be very sufficient.

With the continuous growth of domestic production capacity, the trade flow of acrylonitrile has changed to a certain extent. Customs data show that the total domestic import of acrylonitrile in 2020 is 306600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, and the overall performance is still relatively stable. As most of the acrylonitrile importers are South Korean and Taiwan plastic enterprises such as Zhenjiang Qimei and Formosa Plastics, which are equipped with corresponding raw material plants in the local area, this kind of import is mainly long-term, and the change is expected to be small. It is noteworthy that the export volume of acrylonitrile will further increase in 2020. According to statistics, the total export volume in 2020 will be 72800 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 69.8%. The main export destinations are South Korea, India, Thailand and Turkey. In just a few years, the export volume of acrylonitrile industry has been greatly increased. It is reported that in 2020, Ineos’s 280000t / a acrylonitrile plant in hill sands, UK, will be shut down permanently. In addition to the increase of domestic production capacity, promoting export has become an inevitable development trend of domestic acrylonitrile industry.

There are also two points in the development of acrylonitrile downstream industry. Acrylonitrile is mainly used in the production of ABS, acrylic fiber, acrylamide and other products. ABS is still the main growth point of acrylonitrile demand in the future. In 2021, a total of 1.4 million T / a ABS production capacity will be put into operation, including Guangxi Changke 150000 T / A, Taihua Xingye 250000 T / A and Zhangzhou Qimei 450000 T / A. On the other hand, the capacity of downstream acrylic fiber has not increased in recent years, and the industry lacks high value-added and differentiated products, which are greatly affected by polyester and viscose products. In recent years, other downstream products of acrylonitrile have gradually attracted people’s attention. In terms of carbon fiber, in January this year, Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. started the construction of 12000t / a 48K large tow carbon fiber, and Jinggong technology completed the localization of the first 1000 ton carbon fiber production line, which indicates that the domestic carbon fiber industry is gradually mature and is expected to become a new dark horse in the downstream of acrylonitrile. At the same time, the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 makes the demand for medical gloves surge, and the nitrile latex industry also develops greatly. However, due to the small overall production capacity, the contribution to the demand for acrylonitrile is not large.

Overall, the recent strong trend of international crude oil, acrylonitrile raw material is good, driving acrylonitrile up slightly in the short term. In the long run, domestic acrylonitrile production capacity will increase significantly, and the demand from ABS, carbon fiber and nitrile rubber latex is expected to increase in the future.