1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the prices of most energy and chemical products have soared, and the price of aniline has increased by nearly 20%. On February 9, the price of aniline in Shandong was 8100-8200 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 8400-8600 yuan / ton. On February 21, the price of aniline in Shandong was 9600-9700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 9700-9900 yuan / ton. The average price increased by 1500 yuan / ton, or 18.22%, 23.21% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 46% higher than that at the same period of last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, during the Spring Festival, severe cold weather swept the energy and chemical industry in the United States, and crude oil and pure benzene rose sharply, supporting the domestic price of pure benzene to rise; downstream styrene also rose, boosting the price of pure benzene. Domestic pure benzene enterprises received good news, good shipment during the Spring Festival, price push up. From February 10 to February 21, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 750 yuan / ton to 6150 yuan / ton. On Sunday (February 21), the price of pure benzene was 6100-6350 yuan / ton (average price was 6150 yuan / ton), with an average price increase of 810 yuan / ton or 15.17% compared with that before the festival.

This week, the price of nitric acid remained stable compared with that before the festival. On Saturday (February 20), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2000 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price decreased by 16.67 yuan / ton, or 0.83%; compared with the same period last year, the price increased by 26.32%.

During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil rose, the price of pure benzene rose sharply, supported by the cost side, and the price of aniline rose. According to the news during the Spring Festival, Jinling’s 200000 t / a aniline plant is expected to be overhauled in March. Affected by the news, the downstream stock is prepared in advance, and the inventory of aniline enterprises is released rapidly, and the rising trend continues after the festival.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, some new units are expected to be put into production, pure benzene supply is expected to be tightened, and the price still has room to go up. However, the trend of pure benzene is expected to moderate with the recovery of supply of foreign units. Continue to pay attention to the downstream procurement situation, domestic and foreign trends of pure benzene plants, crude oil, external market and styrene trend, etc.

There is still room for cost increase; Jinling aniline plant is expected to be overhauled, and market supply is expected to decrease; downstream MDI supply is tight, plant load is high, and demand support is strong. Aniline prices or continue to rise, is expected to break million! Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the change of market supply and demand, the operation and maintenance of aniline plant.