Crude oil futures closed higher on Monday, in part because OPEC’s crude oil production growth in January was lower than expected, according to a survey.

West Texas light crude for March delivery rose $1.35, or 2.6%, to $53.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, the price of North Sea Brent crude oil for April delivery on London ice European futures exchange also rose $1.31, or 2.4%, to close at $56.35 a barrel.

In a recent market report, Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at AXA, said OPEC and its allies (collectively known as OPEC +) “seem to be taking their production reduction commitments seriously.”. On Sunday, a representative, who did not want to be named, revealed that OPEC + had a 99% compliance rate with its oil supply restriction agreement in December last year. At the end of last week, most traders were optimistic because the OPEC + agreement reached in early January will be implemented on February 1, including Saudi Arabia’s commitment to reduce production by 1 million B / D unilaterally.

According to a survey, OPEC member countries produced 25.75 million barrels of crude oil per day in January, an increase of 160000 barrels over December last year. “As a result, output growth is significantly lower than expected,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at commercial zbank, said in a report The terms of the agreement reached by OPEC members and their allies at last December’s meeting provide OPEC with room to increase its daily production by up to 300000 barrels. But frich pointed out that the smaller increase in supply was not due to the “voluntary silence” of Member States, but to the involuntary interruption of production in Nigeria.

Michael tran, commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a report that a strong spot premium – that is, the price of recent contracts is higher than that of forward contracts – remains a bullish feature of the market. He said the March Brent crude oil contract performed strongly when it expired last week, with a premium of 84 cents over the April contract, which is particularly noteworthy because the end of the month maturity “is the time when the financial futures and spot crude oil prices are delivered in the specified contract month”. “In short, a strong close shows that the spot market has been pricing more strongly than the financial market has been,” he added

“Positive risk sentiment is one of the factors supporting oil prices, and the prospect of continued decline in oil inventories in the next few weeks due to the decline in Saudi production also supports oil prices.” Said Giovanni staunovo, an analyst at UBS. Brent crude oil futures are expected to hit $60 a barrel in the middle of this year, he said.

Goldman Sachs Group said that the oil price may rise to $65 a barrel in July, and predicted that there will be a supply shortage of 900000 B / D in the oil market in the first half of 2021, higher than the previous forecast of 500000 B / d.

In other energy transactions on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rbob gasoline futures for delivery in March rose 2.4% to $1.5901 per gallon; heating oil futures for delivery in March rose 3% to $1.6469 per gallon; and natural gas futures for delivery in March rose 11.2% to $2.85 per million BTUs.

“The optimistic shift in [weather] forecasts at the end of last week means that the possibility of the coming cold weather spreading to densely populated areas in the lower 48 Eastern States is increasing,” Jeremiah shelor, a market analyst at natural gas intelligence, reported on Monday