1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business community’s block list, crude oil of pure benzene fell this week. On December 20, the price of pure benzene was 4170-4600 yuan / ton (average price 4486 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (December 27), the price of pure benzene was 3880-4600 yuan / ton (average price 4414 yuan / ton), down 72 yuan / ton or 1.6% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

The price of crude oil and pure benzene in Europe and the United States fell after the discovery of a more infectious new crown variant strain in the UK last weekend. The domestic market is under pressure. The Yangtze River Estuary was unsealed and imported pure benzene arrived in Hong Kong one after another. The port inventory rebounded and the pure benzene market was under pressure. In addition, the shipment of pure benzene factory is not smooth, and the price of pure benzene keeps falling under multiple bad conditions. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was stable, at 4600 yuan / ton, and the listed price was firm. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 13000 tons lower than last week.

In terms of external market, Asian pure benzene followed the decline of crude oil, European and American pure benzene, and the arbitrage window of internal and external market was closed. Friday is the Christmas holiday. There is no external information. On Friday (December 24), South Korea imported 628.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 22 US dollars / ton or 3.38% compared with December 18; East China imported 610.5 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 23 US dollars / ton or 3.63% compared with December 18.

In terms of crude oil, a more infectious new crown mutant virus was found in the UK last weekend. Most cities in the UK implemented strict City closure measures. The market worried that the demand for crude oil would be frustrated again, and crude oil fell due to bad news. Friday is the Christmas holiday, crude oil information is not available. Compared with December 18, Brent fell $1.575/barrel, or 3.03%; WTI fell $1.01/barrel, or 2.05%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.52% and WTI decreased by 20.64%.

Downstream: styrene: the domestic styrene market price continued to fall this week. Styrene cost side support is weak; downstream production and marketing decline, demand weakening, styrene spot shipping difficulties, coupled with the decline of styrene futures, styrene is currently not good enough to support. On Friday (December 25), the price of sample enterprises was 6466.67 yuan / ton, down 450 yuan / ton or 6.51% compared with last Friday, and 11.21% compared with the same period last year.

Aniline: the price of aniline is quite stable this week, and the operating rate is more stable than last week. At present, aniline is less affected by pure benzene, the supply and demand of the factory is balanced, and the shipment is stable. On December 27, the price of aniline in Shandong was about 7600-7700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 7900-8000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the new crown mutant virus found in the UK has brought uncertainty to the crude oil market. In addition, the financial stimulus plan related to the new crown epidemic in the United States has been shelved. It is expected that oil prices will continue to be under pressure next week. Pay attention to the progress of the vaccine in the later stage, the fiscal stimulus plan related to the new epidemic in the United States, and the OPEC + production reduction task.

The release of the Yangtze River estuary is expected to increase the amount of pure benzene arriving at the port in the later period, and the port inventory is under pressure. Near the end of the month, pure benzene fundamentals are expected to remain weak. Later, we will continue to pay attention to crude oil, external market related news, styrene price trend and arrival of imported ships.