Commodity index: on October 31, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 90.97, which was the same as yesterday, 16.55% lower than 109.01 (2019-08-28), and 7.89% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Data show that in October, the market of polyaluminum chloride was in a fluctuating upward trend. Among them, the highest price of the mainstream quotation of polyaluminum chloride with solid content and content ≥ 28% appeared at about 1682.86 yuan / ton at the end of the month, and the lowest price was 1607.14 yuan / ton, with the maximum increase of 4.71% this month. This is also the best month for polyaluminum chloride market since 2020. The price of raw material hydrochloric acid has been raised, but the price of calcium powder has not been lowered since the increase in previous months. The price of fuel and natural gas used in the production process has risen sharply this month, resulting in an increase in the cost of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers this month, with the price of polyaluminum increased by about 150 yuan / ton.

Raw material cost: hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price in North China is mainly stable, with some small increases: in October 30, the price of polyaluminum chloride in Meihua, Dezhou has been raised several times, and now it has been reported to 210 yuan / ton. The quotations of Jinan Yuanfei, Taiyuan kunshengda, Shanxi Wenshui and Dezhou Shihua are relatively stable. Henan Province: according to the manufacturers of polyaluminum chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid rose to about 180 yuan / ton in September. In October, the price of local hydrochloric acid continued to rise, which caused great cost pressure to polyaluminum chloride manufacturers. In addition, from the perspective of market rules, the downstream is also in September and October for environmental protection water treatment and reserve raw materials for heating season. Under the dual stimulation of cost and demand, polychlorinated chlorine (PCL) Most of the ex factory prices of aluminum chemical industry have risen, with an increase rate of about 150 yuan / ton this month.

This month, the price of natural gas, a fuel used in the production of polyaluminum chloride, has soared. According to the monitoring of the business agency, with the opening of heating in winter, some areas have begun to replenish the fuel, and the demand is gradually increasing. At present, the downstream procurement is active, the production and sales of liquid plants are not under pressure, the market atmosphere is good, and the price is strong. In addition, multiple favorable factors, such as cost rise, have promoted domestic liquefaction However, the price of natural gas is generally rising. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise in the short term. The current mainstream quotation is about 3766.67 yuan / ton, which has increased by more than 43% this month. For polyaluminum enterprises with such a large increase, the pressure will increase suddenly, and it is inevitable that the ex factory price of polyaluminum will rise this month.

Downstream demand: in the traditional peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the price of polyaluminum chloride increased significantly, especially in October. With the strict requirements of environmental protection inspection and the coming of winter heating season, the demand for polyaluminum in water treatment projects has increased significantly. Many manufacturers said that this month is the best month in 2020, and downstream demand is expected to continue to be good.

Industry: in October, the water treatment industry as a whole is in the annual sales peak season, and the market rise is mainly subject to the rising pressure of the cost side and the demand for water treatment products caused by the upcoming heating season and environmental protection pressure. The market is generally optimistic about the market situation of the water treatment industry in the heating season.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, the traditional season of “golden nine silver ten” has obvious characteristics, and the market in October is better than that in September. Based on the demand of heating season, the price of polyaluminum chloride is rising due to the continuous rise of raw material cost. Due to the coming of heating next month, the comprehensive influence of environmental protection and cost rise, the demand for water treatment will continue to have a certain support Due to the strict requirements of environmental protection, it is still unknown whether there will be shutdown and rectification due to environmental protection. In addition to policy factors, from the perspective of market rules, polyaluminum chloride trend still has upward momentum.