1、 Price trend
According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic toluene market rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the average domestic price was about 3660 yuan / ton, up 0.55% on last week.
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2、 Analysis and comment
At present, the market demand has improved, the transaction is general, and the port inventory is on the high side. Influenced by the overall trend of fluctuating rise of international crude oil this week, the domestic toluene price rose slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3620 yuan / ton.
Upstream, crude oil, data released this week show that OPEC + actively implemented the production reduction agreement in May, and Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a preliminary agreement to extend the current record production reduction by one month, which, combined with the global economic restart, boosted the recovery of demand and boosted the international oil price this week. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent rose 9.69%, Brent futures rose 10.28%, WTI futures rose 5.25%, and Dubai futures rose 14.49%.
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On the downstream side, TDI saw a slight increase in the market. At present, the price of domestic goods delivered with tickets is 10900-11300 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods delivered with tickets is 11200-11500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend and pay close attention to the plant’s later information guidance and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4100 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about 486 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 506 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will follow the rise in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch thinks: in the short term, we can see the supply cost, OPEC + production reduction, total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the economic and trade situation between China and the United States, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will be adjusted next week.
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