1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the weak and stable operation of domestic soda ash this week is mainly. The average domestic market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week in East China is about 1363.33 yuan / ton. On April 25, the light soda ash commodity index was 75.04, flat with yesterday, down 36.33% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.83% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, domestic soda price is mainly weak and stable. The market of soda ash in East China is stable with light market price of about 1200-1380 yuan / ton for light soda ash and 1300-1400 yuan / ton for heavy soda ash. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the short term. The consolidation market of soda ash in Central China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1150-1250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1250-1350 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The market price of soda ash consolidation in North China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1600 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The average operating rate of domestic soda ash manufacturers is about 80%.

In terms of demand: the domestic soda ash market is in overall consolidation operation, and the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand continues. The total information of the industry is still more than 1.6 million. The overall market atmosphere of soda ash is not good, and the downstream market transaction follow-up is weak. In recent years, the maintenance and reduction of domestic soda enterprises have led to the decrease of soda output and inventory. However, the overall change of the demand side is not big. Due to the impact of the environment, the downstream procurement is not hot, and the form of oversupply is still severe. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are two kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, two kinds of commodities falling and one kind of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were PVC (3.34%), calcium carbide (0.68%); the main commodities falling were light soda ash (- 3.75%), caustic soda (- 1.03%). This week’s average was – 0.15%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the domestic soda ash market atmosphere is flat and the transaction is general, and the overall pressure on enterprise inventory is still large. Although the manufacturer plans to reduce the inventory of parking and maintenance, the overall transaction is still average, but considering that the price of soda ash is near the cost line, it is comprehensively expected that the weak and stable operation of soda ash will be the main one in the short term.