1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price of caustic soda in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 482.5 yuan / ton, while the average market price in Shandong at the end of the week was about 487.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.04%. On May 17, the caustic soda commodity index was 70.14, the same as yesterday, 66.09% lower than 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 3.71% higher than 67.63, the lowest point on May 10, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the price of caustic soda is stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong Province is stable temporarily. The main factory price of 32% caustic soda is 470-530 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is low, the market atmosphere is poor, and the overall lack of downstream support. It is expected that the price of caustic soda will be more consolidated in the near future. The caustic soda in Jiangsu Province is temporarily stable, with 32% of the mainstream alkali quotation of about 630-670 yuan / ton. The overall inventory is not high, and the export is increasing. The price of the enterprise is rising, which is expected to be more strong in the later stage. In Henan area, 32% of the main caustic soda price is 1600-1800 yuan / ton (converted into 100 yuan), and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the caustic soda price will be consolidated in the near future. According to data statistics, the output of caustic soda in China from January to February 2020 is 5.237 million tons, a decrease compared with the same period last year.

Industrial chain: flake alkali market quotation: Inner Mongolia market 1750-1800 yuan / ton, Shandong market 2000-2100 yuan / ton, East China market 2050-2100 yuan / ton, Xinjiang market 1450-1550 yuan / ton. The start-up of caustic soda enterprises is maintained at about 70-80%, with little change in supply. From the perspective of demand, the loss of alumina industry is still bad for the price of caustic soda. Affected by environmental protection, the operating rate of paper printing and dyeing industry may be reduced.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are three kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry in the 18th week of 2020 (5.4-5.8), two kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising and falling. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (5.08%), PVC (4.32%), calcium carbide (0.72%); the main commodities falling were light soda ash (- 4.66%), caustic soda (- 3.59%). This week’s average was 0.37%.

According to analysts of business association, the overall demand of domestic caustic soda market is general, alumina continues to lose money, prices in some Southern markets are relatively stable, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong begins to be stalemated, but it is expected that the domestic caustic soda market will still operate stably as a whole, or there will be minor adjustment and operation in some parts.