1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the price of domestic toluene market fell this week and recovered. As of Friday, the average domestic price was about 3280 yuan / ton, down 6.29% month on week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: due to the oversupply of international crude oil and the near saturation of storage capacity, the price of oil this week plummeted to the bottom again. For the first time in the contract delivery history of WTI in May, the price of domestic toluene fell this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3400 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, short-term international crude oil oversupply and storage capacity close to saturation led to another sharp drop in oil prices this week, and WTI fell to a negative range for the first time in the history of contract delivery in May. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent fell 19.09%, Brent futures fell 20.44%, WTI futures fell 34.08% and Dubai futures fell 12.09%.

On the downstream side, the demand for TDI is weak. At present, the quotation of Shanghai cargo delivery with bills is about 9500 yuan / ton, and the TDI settlement price of Wanhua chemical is 10000 yuan / ton this week. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend, and pay close attention to the plant’s later information guidance and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 445 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 463 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the price of PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch believes: in the short term, Saudi Arabia and Algeria, the main OPEC oil producing countries, said that they began to reduce production before the target date of May 1. The situation in the United States and Iran is tightening, which is favorable for oil prices. The international crude oil supply exceeds the demand, which is negative for oil trend. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the inflection point of overseas epidemic and the progress of economic restart. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the US Iraq situation on the crude oil market, the trend of international crude oil and the progress of the resumption of construction of domestic downstream enterprises. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market next week will depend on the trend of crude oil.