1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business association, the average price of soda ash market in East China is about 1480 yuan / ton. On April 19, the commodity index of light soda ash was 75.90, which was the same as yesterday, down 35.60% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 20.19% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic soda market is in negative pressure operation, coupled with the impact of public health events in the first quarter, the domestic soda market is becoming more and more difficult. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of light soda ash is 9.02% lower than the average market price of 1626.67 yuan / ton in early December 2019. The overall inventory of the enterprise is still on the high side, the price of soda ash keeps low, the inventory of soda ash is seriously overstocked, the capital turnover of the enterprise is difficult, and the economic operation of the industry is poor. The inventory of soda ash enterprises remains at a high level: according to the data, the market of soda ash has reached the inventory level of about 1.4 million tons. In the same period of 2019, the inventory is about 255000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.145 million tons, an increase of 449%. At present, the overall industry operating rate is maintained at about 80%, and the overall operating rate of soda ash is maintained at a high level.

Statistics of operation rate of soda ash industry from January to April 2020:

Demand: the main downstream of soda ash is still glass products, but the overall inventory of glass is at a high level. The downstream processing enterprises generally start work, and some foreign trade processing enterprises postpone or cancel orders, which are relatively weak in the multi glass market. In addition, some light alkali downstream industries, such as printing and dyeing, textile and so on, lack of orders at home and abroad, the operation of enterprises is difficult, the demand for soda ash is low, and the overall delivery of soda ash is not smooth. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there is a total of one rising commodity, three falling commodities and one rising and falling commodity. The main commodities that rose were hydrochloric acid (1.20%); the main commodities that fell were calcium carbide (- 6.50%), light soda ash (- 5.33%) and PVC (- 0.31%). This week’s average was – 2.19%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of business association: on April 14, China Soda Ash Industry Association issued the notice on production restriction of soda ash industry, which requires soda ash production enterprises to reduce 30% load for production according to their soda ash capacity from April 18, 2020 to October 18, 2020, reduce the production of soda ash and ammonium chloride, reduce inventory, and promote the clearance of excess capacity. Once this notice was issued, it attracted wide attention of the soda industry and boosted the confidence of the soda industry. However, on the 16th, China Soda Industry Association abolished the notice of production restriction in the soda industry and issued the initiative of production reduction in the soda industry, which failed to meet market expectations. At present, the soda ash market is still high as a whole, the downstream market and domestic and foreign markets are still affected by public health events, and there is still pressure on the enterprise’s shipment. It is comprehensively expected that the soda ash market will remain weak and stable in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.