1、 Price trend:

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is temporarily stable. The weekend average price is 4300 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 48.81% year on year.

2、 Market analysis:

Products: this week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable, the domestic PX operation rate is maintained at more than 70%, the operation of new 600000 ton Hongrun unit is stable, the operation of Huizhou refining and chemical unit is stable, the first line of Fuhai Chuang unit is started, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical unit is stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical unit is stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong unit is full load, Qilu Petrochemical equipment is stable With stable operation, Urumqi petrochemical plant starts at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operates normally, and domestic p-xylene supply is normal. Due to the decline of crude oil price, domestic p-xylene market price trend remains low. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is more than 70%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. This week, the external price of PX drops slightly. As of the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia is 448-450 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 468-470 US dollars / ton CFR China. Affected by the drop of international crude oil price, the external price of PX drops slightly this week, and more than 40% of domestic products need to be imported , the decline of closing price of PX external market has a certain negative impact on the domestic market, and the domestic PX market price remains low.

Industry chain: the closing price of international crude oil fell this week. As of the 16th, the main price contract of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was 19.87 yuan / barrel. Brent crude oil futures market price rose slightly, the main contract was 27.82 US dollars / barrel, and the sharp drop of international oil price shocked the global market. OPEC + countries, as well as the United States, Brazil and Canada, reached a new agreement on Sunday to reduce production by 9.7 million barrels per day within the OPEC + group from May 1. If the G20 countries are taken into account, this reduction may increase to 15 million barrels / day. These production cuts will extend to the end of June, then cut 7.7 million barrels of oil per day between July and the end of the year, and then cut 5.8 million barrels of oil per day between January 2021 and April 2022. The sharp drop in crude oil price is a huge negative for domestic chemical products, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The price trend of PTA Market in the downstream of this week is slightly lower. By the end of the week, the PTA Market in East China had been negotiated to be around 3300-3400 yuan. In the near future, with the gradual restart of these maintenance devices, the starting load of PTA industry has been increased to 93%, far higher than the actual demand load of PTA corresponding to the current polyester operating rate. It is expected that the contradiction between PTA supply and demand will continue to increase in the later period, and the industry inventory will rise again in 2020 From January to March, the cumulative export of China’s textiles and clothing decreased by 17.70% year on year. The terminal weaving enterprises without orders have to stop production and have holidays. In recent years, Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving enterprises have been operating at a low level around 55%, 14% lower than the peak after the year, and nearly 30% lower than last year. The downstream market is poor, and the market price of p-xylene has remained at a low level.

Industry: this week, the textile industry is in a poor situation, and the export market has been greatly hit. However, affected by the decline of crude oil price, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

3、 Future forecast:

Chen Ling, an analyst at PX business club, thinks that the crude oil price will remain low in the near future, but the inventory of downstream textile enterprises is high, the operating rate of downstream textile industry is average, and the supply of domestic PX market is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will keep a small decline next week.