According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market of polyester filament is pessimistic, and the price of domestic polyester filament falls continuously this month. At present, polyester poy150d / 48F, polyester dty150d / 48F, polyester dty150d / 48F and polyester fdy150d / 96F are reported to be 4850-5000 yuan / ton, 6550-7300 yuan / ton and 5100-5450 yuan / ton respectively. The decline of polyester filament products continues to expand, especially the decline of FDY and POY is close to 30%, and the profit has also fallen into the dilemma of loss.
Average market price of polyester filament in March, unit: yuan / ton
Product: March 1, 2020 March 31, 2020 up and down year on year
Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 6884 4894 – 28.62% – 45.65%
Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 7465 5270 – 29.4% – 45.06%
Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) 8718 7018 – 19.5% – 33.43%
The international crude oil price has bottomed out again, and the domestic PTA spot market price has continued to plummet, with a record low. As of March 30, the average spot market price was 3188 yuan / ton, down 24.89 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, down 52.11% year on year. In terms of the plant, the current PTA starting load is about 76%, down 6% from the beginning of the month. In the middle of March, some PTA plants will be overhauled in a centralized manner for about two weeks. From the end of March to the beginning of April, the maintenance of the plant will be completed, and the load is expected to be greatly increased. At the same time, the demand is blocked, and the current PTA social inventory is still higher than 3 million tons. It is estimated that the PTA inventory rate will reach a new high in April.
Recent domestic PTA plant changes
Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit
Huabin Petrochemical 140 entered maintenance on January 27, and it is planned to restart at the end of the month
Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. entered into maintenance on February 3, and planned to restart at the end of the month
Dushan energy 220 will be shut down for maintenance on March 15, with a planned maintenance period of 2 weeks
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Pengwei Petrochemical reduced its load to 70% on February 10, recovered to 90%, and stopped at night on March 9
Hengli Dalian 220 has been shut down for maintenance since March 12, and is in the process of heating up and restarting
Fuhaichuang 450 stopped for maintenance on March 12, and planned to restart at the end of the month
Zhuhai BP 125 was shut down for maintenance on March 15 and heated up near March 28
Jialong Petrochemical stopped for maintenance on August 2, 60, and the restart time is to be determined
The demand in the downstream textile end market is worrying. There are few orders received by domestic factories after the year. There are still worries. The enthusiasm for purchasing is weak. The production and sales of manufacturers are difficult to be leveled, and the inventory keeps rising. At present, the stock of grey fabric of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang area has risen to 40-41 days, and it is difficult for some manufacturers to go to the stock. In terms of export, according to the statistics of the customs, from January to February 2020, China’s export of textile yarn, fabrics and products reached 13.772.5 billion US dollars, down 19.9% year on year, and the export of clothing and accessories reached 16.062.3 billion US dollars, down 20.0% year on year. At present, some foreign trade orders have been cancelled, stopped shipping and other phenomena have increased gradually, and the situation of price reduction has occurred frequently, and the profit space has shrunk significantly. Due to the rising stock and capital pressure of textile enterprises, the comprehensive start-up of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped to around 61%. It is expected that the enthusiasm for start-up will decline in the second quarter, and the loom start-up rate may continue to decline.
Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the upstream crude oil fell sharply, PTA supply and demand were unbalanced, and the cost continued to collapse. The downstream weaving market has been scarred, the inventory has been rising, and the order reduction inventory has increased. Many weaving enterprises decided to implement the operation of holiday and production reduction in the peak season of the “golden three silver four”, and the market entered the off-season ahead of time. Polyester filament price center of gravity all the way down, the factory continues to promote preferential sales, it is expected that April will continue to weaken more likely.
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