1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, as of March 19, the average price of n-butanol was 4867 yuan / ton (including tax). Compared with the previous day (5003 yuan / ton on March 18), the current reference average price fell by 136 yuan / ton, or 2.7%. Compared with a week ago (reference price 5283 yuan / ton on March 12), it dropped 416 yuan / ton, or 7.89%; compared with the beginning of this month (reference price 5467 yuan / ton on March 1), it dropped 600 yuan / ton, or 10.98%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: since January 2020, the market of n-butanol has been sluggish, falling all the way from a high of 6000 yuan / ton in January. The current average ex factory reference price in the market has fallen below the 5000 yuan / ton mark, and the drop has broken 1000 yuan / ton compared with January. This week, the domestic n-butanol market was in a weak position, with a low focus and a general market turnover. It was heard that the purchase price of downstream real orders was slightly lower. Raw material users are mainly digesting inventory. Affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, the mentality of the industry is frustrated. The downstream purchasing of raw materials is further slowed down. They are mainly waiting and careful replenishment. On September 19, affected by the further decline of upstream raw material propylene, the cost of n-butanol was under heavy pressure and the price dropped significantly. At present, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in South China is around 5200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol in North China of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. is 5000 yuan / ton, with a weekly drop of 200 yuan / ton, with a drop of 300 yuan / ton compared with last week. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd With reference to 5000 yuan / ton, the weekly price drop is 100 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton lower than last week; with reference to 4600 yuan / ton, the weekly price drop is 200 yuan / ton, 300 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Industrial chain: on March 18, the market price of propylene in Shandong still fell. In March, the price of propylene in Shandong began to decline. On the first day, the price of some enterprises picked up slightly. On the second day, the price of the whole line rose slightly. On the third day and the fourth day, the price of most enterprises generally rose. On the fifth day, the price of some enterprises increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the price of enterprises fluctuated up and down, but the range was small. On the tenth day, the price generally fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the eleventh day, the price slightly fell by 50 yuan / ton. On the twelfth day, the price of some enterprises rose slightly There was a slight decline of 50-100 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 200-300 yuan / ton on the 13th. On the 16th, the price was stable, and on the 17th and 18th, the price dropped continuously. At present, the market turnover is 5750-6300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5750-5800 yuan / ton. Influenced by OPEC meeting and various international economic policies, international crude oil rose and fell sharply; prices fell again on the 16th and slightly on the 17th. Due to the low production and inventory before propylene, the decline in the early stage is not significant, and the follow-up trend in the later stage is also obvious. It is expected that the price of propylene in the later stage will be affected by crude oil, or there will be a short-term stable market.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of n-butanol of business club, affected by the cost of n-butanol, it is expected that the decline of n-butanol market will be suspended in recent days, and the specific market needs to pay more attention to the trend of upstream raw materials and the relationship between downstream supply and demand.