1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 28, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5720 yuan / ton, 3.62% higher than that of the same period last month, and 6.58% higher than that of the same period last year. The domestic ethanol market is weak.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic alcohol market is mainly weak. Under the psychological support of buying up and not buying down in the lower reaches of Henan Province, the wait-and-see mood is relatively high. Some enterprises shut down their equipment, and their quotations drop again and again. The alcohol market in Shandong Province drops, and the demand in the lower reaches is weak. Under the influence of the continuous price reduction in Henan Province, the price in East China continues to drop, and the logistics is gradually relaxed, and the freight rate begins to fall. The corn ethanol quotation in northeast Jilin Province The stock of some enterprises increased. It is heard that a production enterprise in Heilongjiang has shut down its equipment, and its downstream demand is weak, and its inventory has increased; there are many sources of goods in South China at present, and the inventory alcohol has expanded and consumed for a period of time, while the downstream 95 alcohol demand has decreased significantly, the other downstream demand is weak, the supply and demand contradiction is severe and unbalanced, and the short-term market price continues to fall.

Industry chain: corn: the market of corn has basically liberalized traffic control in an all-round way, and the purchase and sale have become active. The spot price is basically stable, and some areas are weak. The number of vehicles arriving at ports in the North increased, with Jinzhou Port nearly 10000 tons. The average daily shipment of domestic corn and foreign corn in southern port is 22000 tons and 5000 tons respectively. The shipping schedule shows that the arrival of goods is expected to increase before the end of the month, the cost has certain support for the current port price, and the low demand restricts the overall price stabilization. North China has ushered in the peak period of grain sales, with a significant increase in the supply of goods at the grass-roots level, and it is difficult for corn prices to rise significantly in the short term. In the early morning in Northeast China, deep processing enterprises such as Kailu Yuwang and Suihua Haotian increased by 10 to 40 yuan, the purchase subjects increased the willingness of traders to build warehouses, and corn prices were supported.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate fell this week. Due to the recovery of supply enterprises and devices in East China last week, the spot supply of the market was sufficient, while the overall start-up of the downstream industry was low, resulting in a significant deviation in the situation of oversupply in the market, a double weakness of raw materials acetic acid and ethanol, aggravating the negative situation in the market of ethyl acetate, a negative situation in all aspects of the market and the inventory pressure of suppliers and traders , the ethyl acetate market fell this week. The demand of downstream terminal industry is expected to increase in succession after the middle of March. However, the short-term domestic social inventory of ethyl acetate continues to accumulate. Although the demand has increased in the later period, some ethyl acetate production enterprises also intend to increase the load after March 10. The market supply and demand double increase, and the situation that the market tends to supply more than demand is difficult to ease.

3、 Future forecast

The inventory in Northeast China is relatively high. After the small decline of enterprises this week, the cross regional arbitrage of goods sources in Northeast China will be closed soon after the decline of other regions. The price in Northeast China is likely to decline. The price in East China this week is basically close to the cost line, but the demand in the downstream is not getting better. Under the influence of continuous price reduction in the surrounding areas, there is still a possibility of decline, but it is affected by the cost Under the support, the downward range will not be too large. Although there are middlemen and downstream procurement in Henan, the inventory of enterprises is still not low, which does not rule out the possibility of a small reduction under the positive shipping mentality of enterprises. Business alcohol analysts expect the domestic ethanol market to fall in the short term.