I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market was sorted out in a narrow range. As of December 13, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2120 yuan / ton. The price is 1.92% higher than that of the same period last month and 14.31% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic methanol market continues to be weak, and the local price drops slightly. In terms of the mainland market, the overall change is not big, the demand side remains light, and some enterprises make a small profit when the shipment is weak. It is reported that under the red warning in Henan and other places, some downstream enterprises stop production and vehicle transportation is also limited, which needs continuous attention. In the port market, inventory continued to decline and the market fluctuated in a narrow range, with little change as a whole. However, after the port price was raised, arbitrage with the mainland was closed, and shipment weakened.

Freight: domestic methanol freight has been sorting out recently, with partial increase. Reference 170-240 yuan / ton for part of Inner Mongolia North line to Lubei, including 200-240 yuan / ton for Daqi to Lubei, 170-200 yuan / ton for road to Lubei, 170-220 yuan / ton for South line to Lubei, 160 yuan / ton for South line to Hebei, 150-200 yuan / ton for Guanzhong to Lubei, 200 yuan / ton for part to Lunan, 130-160 yuan / ton for Shanxi to Lubei, and The part of Lianyungang is 210 yuan / ton. The reference from Xinjiang to North Shandong is 700 yuan / ton, and from Ningxia to North Shandong is 200-210 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is in a weak position. This week, affected by the heavy pollution weather, the plate factory is not in high operation and the demand is limited. After the price is lowered at the beginning of the week, the profit margin is not large due to the cost problem, and the price is kept low within the week. At present, all cities in Shandong Province have successively lifted the early warning from the previous day. However, the cost of methanol is currently weak in some parts. In this case, it is expected that formaldehyde will be slightly sorted in the later stage. Linyi 1050-1100 yuan / ton, Heze part of the manufacturers shipped 1000 yuan / ton, Zibo high-end fine chemicals 1300 yuan / ton.

Acetic acid: the domestic market of glacial acetic acid is stable. Affected by the news of SOPP device, limited transportation of local weather in the north, and negative load reduction in Lunan, the supplier’s offer was temporarily stable, and the persistent bearish mentality in the early stage improved. Due to the low sales pressure due to the long-term delivery of documents by some enterprises, the prices are relatively firm. Individual spot sales enterprises have obvious selling pressure, but considering cost, the intention of price adjustment is not high. Downstream to maintain rigid procurement, acetate, PTA, vinyl acetate and other start-up are stable.

Dimethyl ether: in the short term, the domestic market of dimethyl ether is up and down, with average market performance. At present, there is no good guidance for the news, local areas limit air mixing, upstream and downstream operations are cautious, and it is expected that the domestic market for dimethyl ether will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of the business community: on the positive side, freight: in winter, when the haze and snowfall are concentrated, local freight rises, and the cost of arrival increases; on the raw material end, in the heating season of autumn and winter, under the protection of natural gas for civil use, the supply and demand situation still supports the market to a certain extent. On the negative side, demand: in the near future, the trading atmosphere is not good, coupled with the decline of local downstream construction, the demand side is further weakened, and local prices continue to fall; supply: some early-stage parking devices have been recovered, and local supply has increased; Arbitrage: arbitrage between the port and the mainland is basically closed, and the delivery speed is slowed down. The methanol analysts of the business club expect that the short-term domestic methanol market is flat, and some of them are still expected to decline.