I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong increased from 6883.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6950.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.97%, down 22.78% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol rose slightly this week, with the commodity index of 51.10 on November 22.

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the factory quotation of the mainstream octanol manufacturers in Shandong slightly increased: Hualu Hengsheng’s factory quotation of this weekend’s octanol is 6900 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jianlan chemical’s quotation of this weekend’s octanol is 6900 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation of this weekend’s octanol is 7050 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation dropped from 7296.15 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7235.77 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.83%, down 13.24% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market: the price of DOP factory rose slightly this week. The DOP quotation increased from 7366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7383.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.23%, down 20.32% year on year. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for octanol procurement, general demand for octanol, and low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

III. future forecast

In late November, Shandong octanol market trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price fell slightly, the cost support was weak, the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, and at present, the octanol inventory in Shandong was low, and the delivery was tight. According to the octanol analysts of the business agency, the octanol market in Shandong in late November may be in low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.