Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week. This week, the average price quoted by mainstream carbide manufacturers rose from 2950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2983.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.13%, down 3.56% from the same period last year. Overall, the market for calcium carbide rose slightly this week, with the carbide commodity index of 78.17 on September 27.

II. Trend Analysis

(1) Products:

The price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week: Ovijaneng’s offer for the weekend was 2950 yuan/ton, which was 50 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s offer for the weekend was 2800 yuan/ton, which was 50 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia China Union’s offer for 3050 yuan/ton this week, which was 50 yuan/ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. The price of carbide in Xingping, Ningxia, was 2,950 yuan/ton this week, which was stable compared with the early week.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2800-3000 yuan/ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2800-2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 3000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material market: This week’s coke ex-factory quotation was temporarily stable, at 1716.67 yuan/ton, down 27.45% from the same period last year. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream has fallen considerably and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC ex-factory prices fell slightly this week. The price of PVC fell from 6770.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6725.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.66%, a decrease of 1.44% over the same period last year. Downstream PVC market slightly declined, downstream customers are generally motivated to purchase calcium carbide. As a whole, this week’s slight decline in PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. However, due to the proximity of National Day, strict transportation inspection, some manufacturers prepares goods in advance.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price has fallen considerably, the cost support is not enough, and the positive impact on the price of calcium carbide is limited. The price of PVC in the downstream has slightly fallen, and the purchase enthusiasm of customers in the downstream is general. Later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in early October, and the ex-factory price may be maintained at about 2950 yuan/ton.