Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of business associations, urea ex-factory prices in Shandong fell slightly this week, with the quotation falling from 1823.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1810.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.73%, 11.23% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 84.19 on September 20.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory prices in Shandong fell slightly. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1800 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1780 yuan / ton this weekend, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation fell by 40 yuan / ton; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 1850 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

Market demand: in terms of agricultural demand, agricultural cultivation in Shandong is about to start, agricultural demand will gradually rise, and some manufacturers will operate at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by environmental protection policies and state-owned enterprise safety, so there are too many shutdowns, and urea demand also falls considerably, which affects the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products slightly increased: natural gas prices quoted 2900.00 yuan / ton this week temporarily stabilized; liquid ammonia prices rose slightly this week, from 333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3226.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.04%, down 7.77% year-on-year. Urea cost support is general. Melamine prices have risen slightly downstream this week and purchasing capacity is general, which has a negative impact on urea prices. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In late September, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that with the advent of National Day, the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness has greatly declined. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up cost has gradually increased, leading to urea market prices. It’s hard to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in late September.