Price Trend

In August 2019, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China fluctuated and fell. In August, the average ex-factory quotation of mainstream calcium carbide producers in Northwest China dropped from 3016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2866.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, falling 150.00 yuan/ton, or 4.79%. Compared with last year, it fell 4.27% year-on-year. Overall, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China fell in August, with a larger decline. On August 31, the index of calcium carbide commodities was 75.11.

II. Trend Analysis

(1) Products:

In August, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China fell sharply.

The quotation of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Calcium Carbide fell from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2750 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the quotation fell by 200 yuan/ton; the quotation of Fugu County Oveganeng Calcium Carbide dropped from 3100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the quotation of Inner Mongolia and China Federation dropped by 300 yuan/ton; the quotation of Inner Mongolia and China Federation dropped from 3050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2850 yuan The price of Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide dropped 200 yuan/ton; the quotation of Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide rose from 2900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2950 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the quotation increased by 50 yuan/ton.

At the end of August, the actual turnover price of calcium carbide in Northwest China ranged from 2700 to 2900 yuan/ton: the mainstream export price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi was between 2700 and 2800 yuan/ton; the mainstream export price of calcium carbide in Ningxia was about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream export price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia was about 2800 yuan/ton.

(2) Industrial chain:

Upstream market: Coke ex-factory quotation rose slightly in August, from 1803.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1816.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 13.34 yuan/ton, up 0.74%, down 26.60% compared with last year. The upstream raw material price is low and consolidated, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide under the contradiction between supply and demand.

Downstream market: In August, the market of PVC slightly declined. The average price of PVC ex-factory quotation fell from 6742.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6622.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 120.00 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, a larger decline, 5.51% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market fell, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

As a by-product of PVC by calcium carbide process, caustic soda market price was low in August. The average ex-factory price of caustic soda was 705.00 yuan/ton, which was 31.03% lower than that of last year. The low price of caustic soda consolidated this month, further reducing the demand for calcium carbide downstream.

(3) Industry:

In August 2019, there were 37 commodities on the rise and fall list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%).

There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%).

This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%. Overall, the market of chlor-alkali industry shows a slight upward trend, and the slight upward trend of chlor-alkali market has limited impact on the demand of calcium carbide.

3. Future Market Forecast

In early September, the price of calcium carbide showed a volatile downward trend, with a small decline. Looking from the upstream, the low price of raw materials in August has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide, and compared with last year, the decline is larger; Caustic soda, the by-product of calcium carbide PVC, has been running at a low price, compared with last year, it has also fallen a lot, while the price of downstream PVC is on a downward trend, so downstream calcium carbide. Demand will weaken. At the same time, to celebrate the arrival of National Day, some manufacturers began to stop production. In the future, business analysts believe that the price of calcium carbide in early September will show a volatile downward trend, with a slight decline. The transaction price is expected to be between 2800 yuan/ton, with a rise or fall of no more than 100 yuan/ton. Some calcium carbide manufacturers may adjust according to the local raw material purchase price.