Price Trend
According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market at the beginning of the month was 12 300 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of aggregated MDI was 13 500 yuan/ton. The price of aggregated MDI rose by 9.76% in the month, which was 34.41% lower than that of the same period last year.
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II. Market Analysis
Products: In July, domestic aggregate MDI market prices fell narrowly in the first half of the month and rose narrowly in the second half of the month. Ring price rises 600-1000 yuan/ton from the end of June. Currently, the market price is around 13300-13400 yuan/ton for Shanghai goods and 13500-13600 yuan/ton for Wanhua goods. In mid-month, due to the “Oba” device incident, market prices gradually showed an upward trend. At the beginning of July, due to the lack of promotion of listing prices, together with the environmental protection maintenance of foaming agents, the overall market atmosphere was weak and light. Although the supplier manufacturers controlled the goods in limited quantities, the market demand was still difficult to keep up with the pace, the mindset of the holders varied, and there was no lack of positive low-price shipment phenomenon. In mid-January, there was a sudden rumor in the market that the European BASF plant needed to transfer goods from the Chinese market due to the problem of raw material supply and low-load operation. The already limited supply became more tense. Businessmen changed their mindset and market prices began to stop falling. Due to the strict control of the manufacturer’s goods, the circulation of the source of goods at the trade end is not large, and the market quotation of the holder is slightly upward. Then until the end of the month, market prices rose narrowly every day. In addition, at the end of the month, Wanhua factory announced an increase in the listing price in August, and the settlement price in August was unexpectedly announced. The firm’s determination to boost the market is obvious. In addition, other factories also cooperate tacitly. Market prices continue to rise, and real unit transaction prices also gradually move up.
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Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This month, the price of pure benzene rebounded rapidly and fell, mainly affected by the trend of the external market. As a result, the price of external market in the first 4-5 months was much higher than that in China, the import of pure benzene in June-July dropped sharply; some domestic reforming and disproportionation units were reduced due to cost reasons, and some large factories were converted to small-order supplementary contracts. Affected by the above reasons, domestic pure benzene supply was reduced, and port stock was reduced from 210,000 tons at the end of June to 155,000 tons at the end of July.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, 43 kinds of commodities rose annually in the chemical sector, of which 23 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 27.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were yellow phosphorus (47.32%), phosphoric acid (26.94%) and hydrochloric acid (23.33%). There are 33 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 11.9% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-16.39%), sulfur (-13.71%) and bromine (-9.66%). This month’s average rise and fall was 2.41%.
3. Future Market Forecast
Business Cooperative Viewpoint: Wanhua factory announced an increase in the listing price in August at the end of the month, and the settlement price in August was also unexpectedly announced. The firm’s determination to boost the market is obvious, and other factories also cooperate tacitly. Market prices continue to rise, and real unit transaction prices also gradually move up. Wanhua Chemicals announced its acquisition of Cornell MDI project in Fujian at the end of this month, which greatly encouraged the mindset of the industry. Analysts from business associations aggregate MDI predict that there is still room for market prices to go up next month and watch for the follow-up of demand.