I. Trend analysis
According to the monitoring data of business associations, cobalt prices recovered on July 15 and rose for the first time since July. On July 15, the price of cobalt rose 0.31% to 216833.33 yuan/ton, down 5.52% from 229500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Following the sharp decline, cobalt prices rose for the first time in July. Does this mean that the cobalt market will come in spring and how will the cobalt market develop in the future?
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II. Market Analysis
New energy automobiles are not optimistic in the future
According to the wholesale sales data of passenger car manufacturers, the wholesale sales of new energy narrow passenger cars in June reached 134,000 units, an increase of 90% over the same period last year. From January to June 2019, the sales of new energy passenger cars reached 570,000 units, an increase of 65% over the same period last year. June is the last month of the transition period of the New Deal of Subsidies, which objectively stimulates early consumption and overdraws some future consumption. The surge in sales of new energy vehicles in June can not reflect the real demand of the market, on the contrary, it will inhibit the growth rate of new energy vehicles in the future. It is expected that the growth rate of new energy vehicles in the future will slow down, which is bad for the future cobalt market.
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Mobile phone sales are declining
In June 2019, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 34.31 million units, down 6.3% from the same period last year; in January-June 2019, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 186 million units, down 5.1% from the same period last year. Sales of mobile phones declined, demand for cobalt declined, which was bad for the cobalt market.
On July 15, the price of cobalt salt fell, putting pressure on the price of cobalt metal. The downstream market of cobalt metal was negative, the future market of cobalt was negative, and the short-term performance of cobalt market was difficult.
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Fourth, the outlook for the future market:
Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst with business associations, believes that although cobalt prices recovered briefly on July 15, the market of cobalt is still not optimistic. The price of cobalt salt in the downstream continued to fall, which exerted great pressure on the price of cobalt metal; the new energy automobile market performed well in June, but overdrawn the future of new energy automobiles in the future, the demand of cobalt Market in the future was not good, and the price of cobalt lost its support; the sales of mobile phones fell sharply, the demand of cobalt Market dropped, and the profit of cobalt price was obvious, but the shortfall of cobalt price was obvious. With the introduction of 5G mobile phone market, mobile phone sales may explode in the future, the demand for cobalt will decrease in the short run, and the demand for cobalt will rise in the long run. On the supply side, although the collapse of cobalt mine occurred in Congo Kinshasa, the overall impact on cobalt mineral energy is small, and the supply of cobalt is sufficient.
Generally speaking, the cobalt Market in the future has sufficient supply, poor short-term performance of demand, long-term or outbreak growth. There is no momentum for cobalt price to rise in the short term, and there is a great pressure to fall. In the long run, the cobalt market is still bullish, the space for cobalt price to fall is limited, and it is difficult for cobalt price to continue to fall. Cobalt prices are expected to fall in the short run and remain bullish in the long run.