Under the rotation of commodity style, chemical products futures have recently entered a rebound stage, in which methanol and PTA futures prices are the strongest. As of yesterday’s close, the main contract of methanol futures closed at 3,225 yuan / ton, the highest record since February 2013, the double volume also increased.

Analysts pointed out that the methanol price has been stable and rising since last week. The main contract price exceeded 3,000 yuan / ton. The price was unstoppable. Yesterday, the intraday price hit a high of 3,300 yuan, hitting a new high in five years. Among them, the last three The cumulative increase on the trading day exceeded 10%. From a fundamental point of view, recent exchange rate fluctuations have raised the cost of methanol imports, and port inventories are still at a low level. Overall, the market is generally optimistic about the rising methanol prices.

Low inventory into the main reason for higher prices

In the recent methanol spot market, the logic of the current price rise is that the current port inventory is at a low level, and the short-term low inventory phenomenon is difficult to change due to difficulties in both domestic and foreign purchase routes.

Fundamentally, according to the inventory fluctuations of previous years, it is generally the traditional off-season of the downstream of the methanol industry from July to September of each year until the “Golden September and Silver 10” is consumed again. However, this year’s situation is quite special, and port stocks have not been improved.

Relevant data show that as of August 2, the inventory of Huadong Port was 268,000 tons, and there was no upward trend. The circulation of Jiangsu Province was 52,200 tons, and Zhejiang was only 0.3 million tons. Although the mainland cargo ships have recently arrived in the Ningbo and Zhangpu areas, the speed of unloading in the two places is extremely slow, and some of the goods are still waiting for unloading, but no methanol is expected to be put into storage.

Some industry insiders pointed out that the recent methanol import has not improved. It is estimated that the methanol import in July was 565,500 tons. Although it increased by 106,500 tons compared with June, it still declined compared with the usual. Considering that the current domestic regional prices are still at a low level relative to the global market, the export volume will continue to increase in August, and there is still a lot of uncertainty in the spot price of methanol.

At the same time, exchange rate fluctuations have also raised import costs. At the beginning of June, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.4, and now it is 6.85, which is equivalent to an increase of 80 yuan per ton. The domestic main port CIF has no advantage over other regions. The Chinese main port price is 402 USD/ton.

Shenyin Wanguo Futures analysis believes that the collective rise of this methanol and other chemical products, mainly due to low inventory, exchange rate fluctuations lead to poor imports, large port arbitrage range, downstream products, and the convergence of nearby delivery and other factors. . The 1809 contract may still have room for growth in the short term, but it is a fishtail market and has a high risk. It is not recommended to continue to pursue more. In the short term, attention should be paid to the follow-up situation and inventory changes in the East China spot market.

Simultaneous enlargement of transactions and positions

“Securities Daily” reporters according to yesterday’s after-hours data observation, the organization’s transactions in methanol futures and positions have also been enlarged. From the top 20 main institutional seats, the total transaction volume was 1,333,800 lots, an increase of 540,000 lots from the previous trading day; it showed that the methanol transaction was more active.

In addition, from the top 20 main institutional seats, the total holdings amounted to 310,000 contracts, an increase of 3,248 contracts compared with the previous trading day; correspondingly, the total number of sell orders was 289,000 contracts, an increase from the previous trading day. Warehouse 16671 hands; in comparison with long and short positions, the market atmosphere is still dominated by long positions.

In terms of institutions, Huatai Futures, Haitong Futures and Huishang Futures traded at the highest volume on the day, with 208,000 contracts, 119,000 contracts and 87,000 contracts respectively, both of which increased year-on-year. However, in the long position, although Huatai Futures, Haitong Futures and Yongan Futures ranked higher, Huatai Futures reduced its position by 14,000 contracts, indicating that some of the bulls’ confidence was loose. At the same time, in terms of short positions, Yongan Futures, Huatai Futures and Haitong Futures ranked high, but Yongan Futures seats reduced their positions significantly, and nearly 10,000 hands were reduced.

From the perspective of market capital flow, the overall domestic commodity market has been mainly net inflows, and black and chemical products are the most popular. Yesterday, the black and coal sectors had a net inflow of 2.162 billion yuan and 572 million yuan respectively, but the chemical sector reversed. The situation is out of 113 million yuan. In addition, Apple’s futures rose sharply in the end, with a total of 250 million yuan inflows.

Shenyin Wanguo futures from the perspective of positions, 1809 contract in the case of near delivery, against the trend of Masukura. Since July 31, 50,000 consecutive positions have been added, but 45,000 hands have been lightened on the 6th, indicating that speculative sentiment has declined.