According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 14th to 21st, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5300 yuan/ton to 5282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 14.80%. The domestic edible ethanol market prices have slightly adjusted, with a narrow range of strong raw material corn prices and strong cost support, and prices have remained stable after rising. The downstream market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, with a focus on stocking up for urgent needs, resulting in lukewarm transactions.

In terms of cost, the overall fluctuation of corn prices is relatively strong. Traders have started to release some of their goods, maintaining a dynamic balance between effective supply in the market and downstream demand, and prices have remained volatile and strong. Feed companies have started using wheat, but there has not been a widespread substitution effect yet. The overall market sentiment remains bullish, and most traders still have a strong willingness to raise prices. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

Supply side, stable operation of supply side. The maintenance of the biological fermentation ethanol plant is concentrated in April, and the on-site supply side is stable and organized. The stable operation of cassava corn ethanol supply side. Coal to ethanol production: Anhui Carbon Xin and Hengxin facilities are temporarily shut down, while other facilities are producing steadily. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, from the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is limited; The operating rates of downstream methyl ethyl carbonate and ethyl acetate do not change significantly, and their consumption of ethanol remains stable; Other downstream chemical industries are accompanied by regular procurement, with a focus on stocking up for essential needs, resulting in limited demand boost. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.

Future forecast: The price of raw material corn is fluctuating and stabilizing, and cost support still exists; With the support of previous contracts, production enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. The mentality of the demand side is cautious, with a focus on purchasing essential needs. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.