1、 Price trend
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1. Shaking downward
The mainstream transaction price has fluctuated in the range of 8000-8500 yuan/ton recently, with a decline of about 10% -15% from the high point at the beginning of the year, and the market transaction center is gradually shifting downwards.
Low end supply (especially in the East China region) has fallen below 8000 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers are offering discounts for shipments, exacerbating market bearish sentiment. As of March 3rd, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
2. Regional differentiation
Main sales regions such as East China and South China have experienced significant price declines due to high supply pressure and weak demand; The North China region is relatively resistant to decline due to local rigid demand support.
2、 Core factors affecting prices
1. Continued weakness on the demand side
Downstream industries such as coatings and textiles: dragged down by the sluggish real estate market and reduced export orders, the operating rate only maintains 50-70%, and procurement is mainly based on small orders for essential needs.
Adhesive industry: The demand in the packaging sector is recovering seasonally, but the increment is limited, making it difficult to reverse the overall weak demand.
2. Increased supply pressure
The industry’s operating rate has rebounded to over 75% (such as the load increase of large factories such as Satellite Chemical and Yangba), coupled with some new production capacity trials (such as the addition of a 100000 ton plant in Shandong), the market spot is loose. Social inventory increased by about 15% month on month, and manufacturers’ willingness to reduce prices to reduce inventory increased.
3. Limited cost support
The price of raw material propylene fluctuates with crude oil, and currently the arrival price of propylene in East China is about 6500-6800 yuan/ton, which provides weak support for the cost of acrylic acid. The price difference between acrylic acid and propylene has narrowed to 1200-1500 yuan/ton, and some companies are approaching the breakeven line, but it has not yet triggered large-scale production cuts. As of March 3rd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6813.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
3、 Prediction of Future Price Trends
1. Short term (1-2 months): weak continuation, bottom oscillation
Demand is unlikely to improve significantly, coupled with loose supply, prices may continue to decline to the range of 7800-8200 yuan/ton. If the significant rebound in crude oil prices drives up the cost of propylene, or if downstream centralized replenishment occurs, it may temporarily halt the decline, but the rebound space is limited.
2. Mid term (3-6 months): marginal improvement, but pressure still exists
Potential benefits: The implementation of domestic stable growth policies (such as infrastructure and consumer stimulus) may drive a rebound in demand for coatings and textiles; Overseas economic recovery may boost export orders.
Risk point: Concentrated release of new production capacity (expected to exceed 500000 tons in the second half of the year), or suppression of price rebound.
4、 Operational suggestions
Traders: prioritize digesting existing inventory and avoid hoarding; Pay attention to low-priced sources and replenish small orders on dips.
Downstream enterprises: Purchase on demand, with forward orders within 3 months to reduce the risk of cost fluctuations.
Production enterprises: flexibly adjust loads based on profits, strengthen binding with downstream long-term contract customers, and reduce pressure on spot sales.
In summary, the acrylic acid market is still in a short-term downward cycle dominated by “weak demand+high supply”, and prices may further bottom out. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to observe the effectiveness of policy stimulus and the pace of overseas demand recovery. If the supply and demand structure improves, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound around the end of the year. Market participants are advised to maintain a low inventory strategy, with a focus on cost side fluctuations and downstream replenishment signals.
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