price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, at the end of February, the domestic PC market continued the previous weak trend, and most spot prices of various brands fell. As of February 28th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16116.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.22% compared to early February.

cause analysis

On the supply side, in February, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises increased at a high level, and the industry average operating rate fluctuated from 77% at the end of January to over 82%. The weekly average production has increased at a high level, reaching over 65000 tons. The on-site supply is very abundant, and some manufacturers have set new prices at the factory. In addition, the inventory position is relatively high, and the on-site pricing continues to be at a low level. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant rebound of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the long positions gradually exhausted before and after the holiday. Although the upstream acetone has increased within the month, the confidence of the industry in cost value has been strengthened. However, the demand side recovered slowly after the holiday, coupled with an increase in the load of the bisphenol A industry, relaxed supply, increased resistance to price increases, and entered a consolidation market. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is generally moderate.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the market as a whole has continued to maintain a light pre holiday level in February. As of the end of February, the return of downstream factories to vacation is still slow, and the load increase of end enterprises is not significant. Due to poor on-site stocking, the purchasing logic is focused on weak demand, and there is still a certain amount of inventory to be digested, leading to an intensification of the supply-demand imbalance. The wait-and-see attitude of businesses is biased, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods, increasing the pressure for businesses to sell. The circulation of goods in the market is slow, and the overall trading situation is basically continuing the light performance after the holiday. The demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

The domestic PC market fell at a low level in February. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently weak and volatile, which weakens the support for PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased at a high level, and the supply is loose. Industry inventory is high, and supply pressure is increasing instead of decreasing. The signs of slow recovery in downstream demand remain, with poor new orders and a deepening trend of supply-demand contradictions. It is expected that PC will continue to operate weakly in the short term.