According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 5th to 14th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first increased from 2653 yuan/ton and then fell to 2578 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.83% during the cycle, a month on month decline of 5.84%, and a year-on-year decline of 2.34%. The domestic methanol market rose and then fell back. The overall inventory of methanol enterprises shows a trend of destocking, but due to the impact of transportation capacity, some regions have seen a slight increase in inventory. In addition, traditional downstream industries are still in the recovery stage, which makes them somewhat resistant to high priced inventory.

As of the close on February 14th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2539 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2561 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2523 yuan/ton. It closed at 2526 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 34 yuan or 1.33% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 615633 lots, the position is 780601 lots, and the daily increase is 25560 lots.

On the cost side, the current supply of thermal coal in the market is gradually increasing, with prices steadily decreasing and port inventories accumulating at high levels. Downstream demand growth is weak. In the foreseeable future, the thermal coal market will still face significant downward pressure. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

Demand side, downstream acetic acid: reduced demand for acetic acid; Downstream formaldehyde: The demand for formaldehyde has increased significantly; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream dimethyl ether: Demand for dimethyl ether is increasing. Downstream chloride: There is little change in demand; The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of February 13th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 361.50-362.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 113.00 to 114.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 335.50-336.50 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.

Future forecast: Traditional downstream production will continue to increase, with attention paid to fluctuations in freight rates and downstream stocking. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations.