1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1556 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 528 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 28 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 1.80%. On December 31st, the Business Society’s light soda ash index was 78.36, a decrease of 0.51 points from yesterday, a decrease of 58.56% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 24.09% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been weakly declining this month. The utilization rate of on-site soda ash production capacity remains high, the market supply is sufficient, and the sales pressure of spot soda ash factories is high. Downstream glass prices are relatively strong and consolidating, but mainly consuming inventory, the demand for soda ash is not high, and the market purchase is limited. Market trading is poor, and the focus of soda ash transactions continues to shift downwards.

As of December 31, 2024, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in Central China is around 1350-1550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30-50 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in North China is around 1550-1630 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of glass has fluctuated and risen this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 16.20 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 16.40 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.23%. The capacity utilization rate of the glass market has decreased, and the spot market is fluctuating at a high level. Downstream market entry follows suit according to demand, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. The glass inventory has increased, and the price market is consolidating.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price comparison index of Shengyi Society’s soda ash and glass products on December 31 was 79.32, a decrease of 0.52 points from yesterday, a decrease of 29.41% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and an increase of 4.03% from the lowest point of 76.25 points on November 17, 2024. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has been stable and slightly weak in the near future. The downstream glass market price is stable, but the support for soda ash is limited. The utilization rate of soda ash production capacity on the supply side is high, and the inventory of spot alkali plants is sufficient. The sales pressure of enterprises is high, and there is a lack of good market conditions. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.