According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market remained relatively low in October. From October 8th to 31st, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 5752 yuan/ton to 5575 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.09% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 19.00%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices fluctuated and fell, with logistics restrictions and rising shipping costs. Along with poor downstream demand, companies were slow to ship and inventory pressure increased. The price of raw corn continues to decline, with a slight loosening in costs. After the holiday, production companies have gradually lowered their offers, and the focus of the ethanol market has once again fallen. In mid month, the price of raw corn continued to decline, and the cost support for fermented corn ethanol loosened. Affected by poor downstream demand, companies are shipping slowly, and the ethanol market continues to see a decline in quotes. At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices remained stable with small fluctuations, and the supply of raw material corn was loose, resulting in a slight decline in prices. Downstream restocking in some regions has been slightly active, with factory shipments improving and industry sentiment rebounding.

In terms of cost, corn prices have slightly weakened, and new grain in major production areas continues to increase. Some farmers in areas where new grain has not yet been listed still have reluctance to sell. The purchase prices of deep processing enterprises have fluctuated, and some enterprises continue to purchase at lower prices. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

On the supply side, the supply of ethanol in various regions of China remains stable, with some factories experiencing short-term shutdowns and plans to restart. Coal quality factories are expected to operate normally, but overall supply fluctuations are limited. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support slightly improved; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; The production capacity of ethyl acetate continues to increase. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

In the future forecast, the price of raw material corn is weak and stable, with insufficient support. With the increase in the operating rate of ethyl acetate, the demand for ethanol may increase. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may break through in the short term.