Aluminum prices continued to fall in July, but in early August, the decline in aluminum prices converged and began to show signs of stabilization. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on August 9, 2024 was 19026.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the market average price of 19186.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (August 1).

Reasons for stabilizing and stopping the decline in August

1. The price of raw material alumina remains firm, and the cost side is supported by the amplification of influencing factors after the decline in aluminum prices.

2. Domestic macro news has been released. The domestic action plan to accelerate the construction of a new type of power system has been introduced, which is overall beneficial for the fields of new energy power generation and electric vehicle charging piles, and has a driving effect on the demand for electrolytic aluminum.

3. Currently, the price of aluminum ingots has fallen to near the marginal cost, and the import window is still closed, narrowing the downward space and providing some support for prices.

Summary of Negative Factors in August

1. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has accumulated slightly. As of August 5th, the mainstream market electrolytic aluminum inventory in China is 819000 tons.

On the supply side, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises have resumed production one after another, and new projects in Inner Mongolia have been put into operation, resulting in a slight increase in daily production of electrolytic aluminum in China.

On the demand side, the off-season effect is intensifying, and the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing links is declining.

Aluminum prices may stabilize and stop falling in August

At present, aluminum prices remain at the level of 90000 yuan, and downstream acceptance has increased. It is expected that aluminum prices may stabilize and stop falling in August.