1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the stearic acid market fluctuated in May, with a benchmark price of 8560 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of May 31st, the benchmark price of stearic acid was 8900 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. Increase by 1.42%. In early May, stearic acid rose and then fell, followed by a second increase in late May. As of the last day of May, stearic acid increased by 4.97% compared to April. On the cost side, palm oil fell and rose in May, and the current situation shows that some stearic acid production enterprises still have low profits.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: In early May, the palm oil futures market experienced a rebound, and after the rebound, it gradually rebounded. On May 10th, the average price of palm oil in the market fell to 7770 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 3% compared to the beginning of the month. In mid May, due to the increasing production cycle of Malay palm oil, palm oil experienced a pullback after rising. Long and short intertwined, palm oil saw a relatively large increase of nearly 1.5%. On May 30th, the average price of palm oil in the market was 7940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% compared to May 20th. Starting from June, the weather has warmed up, and the demand for terminal oils has declined. The upward space for palm oil is still limited.

Supply and demand side: In May, the production and operation of the stearic acid factory approached a load level of 6.6, which was almost the same as the previous month. The factory operation was stable, and the shipment volume remained at a stable level. The domestic supply of goods was also quite stable, supplemented by imported goods to replenish inventory. In April, the import volume of stearic acid in China was 21450.756 tons, and from January to April, the total import volume of stearic acid in China was 96063.289 tons. At present, there is sufficient inventory of stearic acid.

Downstream PVC: The spot market price of PVC rose in May. On May 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5556 yuan/ton. On May 28th, the average price was 6026 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 8.46% within the month. This month’s news is mainly positive, with the rise of futures driving prices in the spot market. Downstream product enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The stearic acid market fluctuated in May, with some fluctuations in the cost of palm oil, but overall the market slightly declined. Cost support is slightly weak. The improvement in demand for PVC downstream is limited. It is expected that the stearic acid market will continue to be weak and consolidate in the later period.