Last week, the price of # 441 metallic silicon remained stable. As of May 17th, the average price of metallic silicon in the domestic market was 13570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% compared to the previous week. Last week, the industrial silicon market was weak and stable. In terms of the spot market, prices for various brands were strong last week. However, due to limited release of buyer demand, there was still pressure on prices. However, the current price space for silicon factories is limited. At present, there are relatively few downstream procurement replenishment operations, so there was a release of post holiday replenishment orders last week. However, the sentiment of transaction pressure is still strong; However, the futures market is under pressure. Although the macro environment improved at the beginning of last week, it had no significant impact on the industrial silicon market. In addition, downstream polycrystalline silicon continued to have a weak market, and the market performance was very weak. Therefore, industrial silicon operated weakly and steadily last week

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 17th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 13400~13500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 13400~13500 yuan/ton, with an average of 13450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 13600-13700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13200~13300 yuan/ton, with an average of 13250 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 14000-14100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14050 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of May 16th, there were 335 silicon metal furnaces in operation in China, with an overall start-up rate of 44.85% and an increase of 11 furnaces compared to the previous week. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces opened increased, with more manufacturers in the northwest resuming production. At the same time, manufacturers in Sichuan continued to resume production. As the flood season approaches, the number of furnaces opened in the southwest will further increase, and the overall supply situation will increase.

In terms of inventory:

Last week, the inventory of industrial silicon slightly increased. As of May 17th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 379000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons compared to before the holiday. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 106000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to last week’s month on month ratio, and the social delivery warehouse was 273000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), an increase of 10000 tons compared to last week’s month on month ratio.

In terms of demand:

Last week, the price of polycrystalline silicon continued to weaken. Against the backdrop of oversupply of silicon materials and high corporate inventories, there is a strong bearish atmosphere in the market. The upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain is significant, and both upstream silicon materials and silicon wafer enterprises are in a high inventory stage. Currently, prices have shown irrational declines, but there is still a risk of oversupply in the later stage; At the same time, the United States imposing tariffs on photovoltaic cells and launching a dual anti investigation into Southeast Asia are not conducive to China’s photovoltaic cell exports. The current demand for terminal installation is relatively sluggish, and the competition between upstream and downstream may become more severe in the later stage. The demand for polysilicon is worrying.

Last week, the prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy remained stable, and the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was around 13550 yuan/ton. At present, the overall atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC site is mild, with the bottom of the organic silicon fluctuating, and the enterprise’s operation is stable. The procurement of industrial silicon is mainly based on demand. The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is around 20000 yuan/ton. The overall trend of the aluminum market is relatively optimistic, but there has been no active hoarding of industrial silicon procurement. Intermediary traders have reported that it is mainly based on rigid demand procurement, and prices are still being held down.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, silicon factories in the southwest region continued to resume production last week, with production increasing gradually during the flood season. However, the current market trend is weakening, so the overall operating rate has improved but the increment is small, and the overall supply situation has slightly increased; On the demand side, the price of polycrystalline silicon has declined and the market for organic silicon has stabilized, showing signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. However, the release of demand is weak, but the impact on demand has narrowed after the release of bearish sentiment. The increase in social inventory results in a higher total inventory level. The supply and demand side, with strong supply and weak demand, is bearish on silicon prices. The market is under pressure and the futures market is weakening. However, there is support on the cost side, which is temporarily stable. Currently, industrial silicon prices are in the bottom range, and it is expected that industrial silicon will bottom out and stabilize next week.