According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from January 12 to January 19, 2024, the domestic ex factory price of coal tar fell, with a price of 3645 yuan/ton on the 12th and 3602.5 yuan/ton on the 19th, a decrease of 1.17%.

From the monthly K-bar chart of coal tar, it can be seen that after entering 2023, the coal tar market has experienced more decline and less increase, with significant increases and decreases from January to May, and relatively small fluctuations in June and July. On a monthly basis, the market saw a broad decline of 19.37% in January, followed by a brief 13% rebound in February. In March, prices fell sharply again by 15.2%, and in April, the decline continued to expand to 36.91%. In May, the market rebounded significantly by 32%. The market performance in June and July was relatively stable, but after entering August, the market fluctuated greatly, with overall gains and losses. From September to October, the market maintained a narrow range of volatility, with five consecutive weeks of decline in mid October and a continuous decline from November to December. In recent times, the overall market has seen more declines than gains.

Note: The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of price trend candlestick to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations.

Supply: Coking enterprises have seen a decline in operating rates and supply is tight

From 2022 to present, we can see from the operating rate curve of independent coking enterprises in China that the operating rate of coking enterprises has decreased this week. After the implementation of two rounds of coke reduction, coking enterprises are currently experiencing losses, and some enterprises have voluntarily limited production, resulting in a significant decline in operating rate. The corresponding supply of coal tar has declined compared to the previous period, and the overall supply of coal tar has been tight recently.

Demand: The deep processing market is weak, and the market sentiment is weak

From the price list of the deep processing industry we monitored in December, it can be seen that this week, the prices of deep processing related commodities have fluctuated, with some commodity prices slightly decreasing and some commodity prices slightly recovering. However, the price market for some main commodities is still weak. As the Spring Festival approaches, there are certain stocking plans in the downstream market in the near future, and inquiries in the downstream market have significantly increased. Market trading has improved compared to the previous period, and by the weekend, the market atmosphere has significantly improved. In the future, it is expected that there will be a slight rebound in the tar market driven by downstream stocking, but the magnitude of the increase still needs to be monitored by the specific performance of downstream commodities.