According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of toluene has recently stabilized narrowly from 11.20 to 11.29. On November 29th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6680 yuan/ton, while on November 20th, the benchmark price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76%.

The international crude oil price range fluctuates, and the cost support for toluene is weak

Recently (11.20-11.29), the international crude oil price range has fluctuated, providing weak support for the cost of toluene. As of November 219, the WTI01 contract closed at $77.70 per barrel and settled at $77.86 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $82.68 per barrel and settled at $81.47 per barrel.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of late November, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly declined to around 640%; The gasoline production of independent refineries has slightly decreased by 12000 tons compared to the previous period.

PX starts stable toluene production and obtains necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, there is little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some xylene units. This week, international crude oil prices have risen, and PX external prices have been mainly affected by this. As of the 23rd, the closing prices in the Asian region are 984-986 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1009-1011 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

The external market price has decreased, and the inventory of toluene at ports has significantly increased

On the one hand, since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has fallen. As of November 29, December, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 814-816 US dollars/ton; On the other hand, domestic toluene production has slightly increased and port inventory pressure has increased. As of November 23, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 7.2%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 43000 tons, while the inventory of toluene in South China is 11000 tons, a significant increase overall compared to mid November.

Market forecast: Currently, the international crude oil price range is fluctuating, and the cost support for toluene is weak; The downstream mixed blending of toluene and other industries have weak demand support, coupled with a continued increase in supply in the short term, and it is expected that the toluene market will consolidate weakly in the future.