According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in August 2023, the domestic lead ingot market experienced an upward trend, with an average price of 15750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16100 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 2.22%.

On August 29th, the lead commodity index was 97.83, a decrease of 0.61 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 31.09% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

On August 29th, the base metal index was 1206 points, a decrease of 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.85% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend in the first half of the year was somewhat volatile, with a significant increase starting from July. In terms of weekly trend, there was a slight increase for 7 consecutive weeks after entering July.

In August 2023, the trend of the lead ingot market was somewhat volatile in the first half of the month, while it showed a significant upward trend in the second half. In the first half of the month, macroeconomic fluctuations were limited, and the Shanghai lead market maintained a high and volatile trend. The market had a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and downstream purchases were made on demand, with limited actual transactions. Fundamentally, in terms of supply, in the first half of the month, some enterprises underwent maintenance and some resumed production, so the overall change in primary lead supply is not significant. In terms of recycled lead, the supply of waste batteries continued to be tight after August, and the tight supply of raw materials boosted the high price of recycled lead. In terms of demand, downstream consumption is still relatively low, but prices have been continuously rising recently, making it difficult to transmit to downstream. Recently, battery inventory has been accumulating, and the market is expected to decline during the peak season. Downstream purchases continue to be based on demand.

After entering the second half of the month, the atmosphere of the peak season began to emerge as the temperature increased, coupled with tight supply, and market prices rose. Fundamentally speaking, there is not much change in the supply of primary lead in the second half of the month, and some areas are slightly tight due to maintenance, weather, and other factors. The supply of recycled lead is still tight, and the cost pressure on recycled lead is high. The supply is tight, and the overall price is high. In terms of demand, the operating rate of battery companies has slightly increased. Due to the upward impact of raw material lead ingot prices, the current operating rate is relatively stable. Automotive batteries have slightly rebounded under the influence of gold and silver, while other electric vehicle batteries and other batteries have not changed much. Downstream markets are generally wait-and-see as raw material prices rise, and under cost pressure, it is expected that the lead ingot market will continue to operate steadily in the near future.

Related data:

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in July 2023 reached 2.401 million and 2.387 million, respectively, a decrease of 6.2% and 9% month on month, and a decrease of 2.2% and 1.4% year on year. From January to July, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 15.65 million units and 15.626 million units, with year-on-year growth of 7.4% and 7.9%, respectively. The cumulative growth rate has slowed down compared to January to June.

From 2012 to 2022, there has been a significant increase in China’s lead production in the past decade, especially since 2015. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China’s lead production in April 2023 was 614000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a month on month decrease of 19.53%.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in June 2023, global refined lead production was 1.1664 million tons, consumption was 1.1381 million tons, and there was an oversupply of 28300 tons. From January to June, the global refined lead production was 7.332 million tons, with a consumption of 7.333 million tons and an oversupply of 30000 tons. In June, the global lead ore production was 381800 tons. From January to June, the global lead ore production was 2.5193 million tons.