Phosphate rock
| Melamine |
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 942 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1, 2023 (the reference price of phosphate ore was 1056 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.80%.
In the first half of 2023, the overall market situation of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in China showed a trend of first rising and then falling. In the first quarter of 2023, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole steadily rose. In January, around the Spring Festival, the phosphorus ore market remained stable and organized, with many mining companies suspending production and the news on the market remained calm. In February, after returning from the Spring Festival, the overall supply of phosphate rock continued to be tight, supporting a slight upward trend in the market trend, with some mining enterprises in some regions mainly receiving pre orders. In March, the spring planting season has arrived, and the downstream market demand for phosphate ore terminals is good. From bottom to top, the support for phosphate ore market has been strengthened, and the overall phosphate ore market continues to move towards the high-end. In the first quarter, the 30% grade phosphate rock increased by 5.87%.
In the second quarter of 2023, the domestic mid to high-end grade phosphate ore market as a whole began a weak decline. Affected by the decline in the downstream product market of phosphate ore, downstream factories have started to operate less, demand for phosphate ore has weakened, and some regions have poor pre orders. The trading atmosphere in phosphate ore fields is light, and the mentality of operators is average. Downstream demand for raw materials has weakened, and the support for phosphate ore from bottom to top has gradually loosened. Since early April, the focus of the phosphate ore market has been continuously shifting, and the supply-demand contradiction has gradually emerged.
yellow phosphorus
According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of yellow phosphorus fell in the first half of the year. At the beginning of January, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 33125 yuan/ton, and at the end of June, the average price was 22900 yuan/ton. The price decline in the first half of the year was 30.87%. The highest point from January to June was 33250 yuan/ton on January 4th, and the lowest point was 20000 yuan/ton on May 14th.
In January, the market price of yellow phosphorus fell by 4.15%. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the market was relatively quiet. In late February, the news of power rationing in Yunnan spread, and the overall market trading situation improved. The yellow phosphorus market price first fell and then rose, and overall, the price slightly decreased, with a decrease of 0.63%. In March, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market increased significantly, with low buying enthusiasm and difficulty in closing high-end prices. The market price decreased by 3.81%. The domestic yellow phosphorus market continued to be weak in April. The overall market trading situation is poor, with limited new orders and a significant drop in yellow phosphorus market prices, with a decrease of 20.79%. In May, the market price of yellow phosphorus first fell and then rose, with an overall decline of 8.75%. Yellow phosphorus production enterprises have reduced their production load, and some enterprises have stopped, delaying the driving time. Later on, enterprises have raised prices, and prices have rebounded from the bottom. In June, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market first rose and then fell. Manufacturers mainly placed early orders, but there was not much inventory on the market, so they were reluctant to sell at low prices. The overall market price rose mainly, with an increase of 4.57%.
phosphoric acid
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China on January 1st was 9025 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6300 yuan/ton. In the first half of 2023, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 30.19%.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 8966 yuan/ton on January 1, and 6200 yuan/ton on June 30. In the first half of 2023, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price decreased by 30.86%.
The price of phosphoric acid fluctuated and fell in the first half of 2023. In the first half of the year, the market for raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and phosphate rock weakened, resulting in insufficient cost support. The demand for phosphoric acid in the market is weak, and trading continues to be light, with bearish sentiment mainly on the market. There are fewer downstream purchases, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. Under the influence of weak factors of cost and demand, the domestic phosphoric acid price trend continued to decline from January to May. In June, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus stopped falling and stabilized, while the trend of raw materials for phosphoric acid was on the watch. The market price stopped falling and slightly increased.
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Monoammonium phosphate
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 55% powdered monoammonium on January 1st was 3537 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the reference average price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 2550 yuan/ton. In the first half of 2023, the market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 27.92%.
The price of monoammonium phosphate continued to decline in the first half of 2023. The market for raw phosphorus ore and sulfur has weakened, and cost support is weak. The market demand is sluggish, the transaction atmosphere is poor, and the focus of market transactions continues to decline. Downstream demand based procurement leads to low purchasing enthusiasm. Under the influence of bearish factors such as weak cost side and weak market demand, the market trend of monoammonium phosphate in the first half of the year was not good. At present, in the off-season of market demand, it is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will continue to be weak in the short term, with weak consolidation and operation as the main trend.
Diammonium phosphate
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4000 yuan/ton on January 1, and 3737 yuan/ton on June 30. In the first half of 2023, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 6.56%.
The price of diammonium phosphate fluctuated and declined in the first half of 2023. The price trend of raw materials is poor, and cost support is weak. The supply of ammonium bicarbonate in the field is tight, and most manufacturers have suspended orders in the first quarter. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, and the on-site trading atmosphere is light. In spring, there is relatively little supply of corn fertilizer, and the market has a strong mentality of buying up rather than falling. At present, during the off-season of fertilizer use in summer, the demand for diammonium continues to be weak, and manufacturers and distributors have lowered their prices. Under the influence of bearish factors, it is expected that the short-term price of diammonium phosphate will continue to be weak.
Phosphorus Chemical Index
According to the analysis of the phosphorus chemical index of the Business Society, the phosphorus chemical index continued to decline in the first half of the year. Since June 18, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30-day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to decline in the same direction, and the phosphorus chemical index has entered a downward channel.
Future Market Forecast
Due to sluggish market demand in the first half of 2023, the trend of phosphorus chemical industry is not good. At present, the stable operation of phosphorus chemical products is the main focus, but the terminal demand is weak and there is still no improvement. The phosphating industry has a cautious mindset and is expected to see a narrow adjustment in the market trend in the short term, with specific attention to changes in supply and demand.
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