1、 Price trend

Business Society: The domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in June

According to data from Business News Agency, as of June 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 6200.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 10.40% from 6920.00 yuan/ton on June 1st.

On June 29th, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 58.22, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.02% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and an increase of 13.76% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In June, the downstream resin market was weak, with resin manufacturers experiencing poor shipments, sufficient market supply, high inventory levels, and limited replenishment capacity for maleic anhydride. In addition, the price of raw material n-butane fluctuated and declined, with no significant improvement in supply and demand, and the market for maleic anhydride continued to decline. By the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 5700 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu was about 5700 yuan/ton, and that in South China was about 6200 yuan/ton.

In June, the international crude oil market was volatile. On the one hand, based on the global economic situation, the Federal Reserve announced that interest rate hikes have not yet ended and will not cut rates. Macroeconomic pressure has increased, putting pressure on the oil market. On the other hand, OPEC+has announced two production cuts, coupled with the increase in China’s refining and processing volume, which has boosted international oil prices. The demand during the summer oil peak season has supported, and the international oil price market has been boosted.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene continued to decline in June, with an average price of 6530.50 yuan/ton on June 1st and 6183.83 yuan/ton on June 30th, a decrease of 5.31%. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China declined significantly, with an average price of 6600.00 yuan/ton on June 1 and 6100.00 yuan/ton on June 30, down 7.58%. The market for n-butane fluctuated and declined in June, with prices in Shandong reaching around 4200 yuan/ton as of June 30th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current market for n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride is low, while the downstream resin market is weak. There is still a downward trend in resin, and resin replenishment is cautious, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. There is no significant positive impact on the industrial chain. Maleic anhydride manufacturers mainly execute preliminary orders, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by low level consolidation in the near future.