In June, the domestic polycrystalline silicon continued to experience a cliff like decline, with the decline worsening compared to May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, polycrystalline silicon fell by over 40%. The domestic supply of goods has experienced a significant decline, with an overall magnitude exceeding 30000 to 40000 yuan. At the end of the month, the mainstream range of single crystal density with a model of first class solar energy reached 6500-85000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, there is a significant oversupply of silicon materials in the market, and the operating rate of enterprises remains at a medium to high level, coupled with the gradual release of new production capacity. Large factories are still in the mode of selling goods to occupy the market, and there is great pressure for enterprises to destock, making it inevitable to reduce prices for shipments. The number of orders signed by large factories this month is basically the same as last month. At the end of the month, orders from large factories were signed one after another in July. Due to the decline in silicon materials, the negotiation cycle has been shortened, and currently, negotiations are mostly held every week, especially for small manufacturers who are facing difficulties in shipping. The price difference between low-quality silicon materials and high-quality silicon materials is gradually widening.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, the decline in silicon wafer prices this month is significant, basically unchanged from the decline in silicon materials. Previously, imported quartz sand remained high and with sufficient raw materials, silicon wafer manufacturers continued to operate at high operating rates. This month, the shipment volume of silicon wafers significantly decreased, and inventory pressure led to a decrease in silicon wafer operating rates. The market is in the process of destocking, and there is significant action under prices. As of the end of the month, the prices of some mainstream models of silicon wafers have been reduced by over 2 yuan. The mainstream model single crystal M10 has lowered its price by 1.35 yuan to 2.8 yuan per piece, a drop of over 32%. The mainstream price of G12 has been lowered by 1.8 yuan to 6.0 yuan per tablet, a decrease of 30%.

Terminal demand: From the perspective of battery cells and components, the price of battery cells has decreased this month, and the market is mainly in stable demand. With the lower quotation of upstream silicon wafers, the profits of battery cell manufacturers have increased. The mainstream transaction price of single crystal M10 battery cells decreased by 0.21 yuan to around 0.71 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price of G12 battery cells decreased by 0.24 yuan to around 0.74 yuan/W, with an overall decline in the 20% range. Downstream component prices have also declined. The demand for terminal installation is average, and downstream prices are significantly depressed. Currently, the market is still in a game between upstream and downstream.

Future forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that there is a significant expansion of production capacity in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain, especially in the case of oversupply of silicon materials and silicon wafers. However, due to relatively stable downstream demand and limited demand growth, silicon material prices may continue to be under pressure. With the significant decline in silicon prices, the decline at the end of the month is gradually slowing down. It is expected that silicon may stop falling next month. However, considering the weak supply and demand situation, there is still no possibility of a rebound in silicon, and it may turn into volatility in the later stage.