Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been weak, with a significant decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 22, the average price of ABS sample products was 10700 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.73% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: Recently, the high load situation in the ABS industry has continued, with enterprises resuming work and undergoing maintenance, and the overall load has fluctuated at a high level. The operating rate of domestic ABS is close to 90%, and the overall narrow adjustment has been around 88% recently. The on-site spot supply continues to be abundant, competition intensifies, and supply side pressure is high. Domestic enterprise inventories continue to rise, putting pressure on manufacturers and merchants, and both prices have declined.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been negative recently. The market situation of raw material acrylonitrile has turned downward. At present, the price of acrylonitrile raw materials has slightly increased but is still at a low level, with weak support for acrylonitrile; The downstream atmosphere is weak, and prices have decreased slightly, while the demand for acrylonitrile continues to be weak; In addition, the supply side has slightly improved, and the acrylonitrile market has slightly declined.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market price continues to fall. The external market has a relatively abundant supply of goods and the transaction price is constantly decreasing, which has a significant drag on the domestic spot market. At the same time, the main production enterprise Sinopec lowered its quotation within the week, and some early maintenance enterprises in Northeast China have resumed their supply of goods by bidding and entering the market, resulting in abundant supply, causing the butadiene market to continue to decline.

It can be seen from the figure below that the price of styrene market has continued to decline recently. The international crude oil price has dragged down the weakness of the pure benzene market, resulting in poor cost support. Downstream markets are mostly in the off-season, mainly in demand. Domestic styrene supply is relatively abundant, and spot transactions are poor. The styrene market has fluctuated and declined.

In terms of demand: Last week, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, showed average enthusiasm for stocking up. The manufacturer’s mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, and overall demand improvement is limited. The actual trading volume on the market is weak, and the smoothness of goods delivery is poor.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the three upstream materials of ABS have all declined, which has not provided sufficient support for the cost side of ABS. Nearly 90% of petrochemical plants have started construction, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Poor demand side support, overall maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern. The stacked inventory position continues to rise, and the mentality of merchants has softened, with operations leaning towards giving up profits and taking orders. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.