1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices have slightly declined this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 64638.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.84% from the 67220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.37%.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, the price has dropped by 7% and increased by 5%. Recently, copper prices have fallen weakly.

LME copper inventory

Macroscopically, the International Monetary Fund has stated that if the United States defaults on its debt, it will have a very serious negative impact on the US and global economy. Biden was originally scheduled to postpone negotiations on the debt ceiling with House Speaker McCarthy on Friday until next week. Federal Reserve hawkish official Kalikash stated that despite a short-term slowdown, inflation remains too high, and the Federal Reserve will have to maintain a tightening monetary policy for a longer period of time. The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point increase in its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% and stated that further tightening of monetary policy is necessary if there is more holding pressure on inflation. The recent release of China’s economic data is generally poor. Yesterday’s inflation and social finance data fell short of market expectations, sparking concerns about domestic demand in the market.

On the supply side: The production and port transportation issues of overseas mines have been gradually resolved, and processing costs have stabilized without changing the loose situation. With the arrival of the intensive maintenance period for smelting enterprises, the supply of crude copper may be tightened again, and the production of electrolytic copper will be suppressed, and the import volume of electrolytic copper is also limited.

On the demand side: The demand for terminal copper has not increased during the peak season, and the operating rate of copper companies is generally lower than the same period last year. Overseas inventory continues to rise.

In summary, with the end of the traditional consumption peak season of “Gold, Silver, and Four”, there are obvious signs of weakness in the consumer end. And under the influence of continuous interest rate hikes overseas, hidden inventory has become increasingly apparent, making copper fundamentals even more vulnerable. The maintenance of smelting enterprises may have some support. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term.