From April 7, 2023 to April 14, 2023, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi Province fell again. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average market price was 4750 yuan/ton last weekend, and 4620 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly drop of 2.74%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly coal tar K column chart above, it can be seen that since November 2022, the coal tar market has declined for three consecutive months, and the price has risen since February. The weekly K column chart shows that the coal tar market fell for six consecutive weeks, the price gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, and began to decline continuously at the end of February.

On April 13, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 162.67, down 1.12 points from yesterday, down 29.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and up 245.01% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

In this cycle, the deep-processing industry saw both gains and losses, most of which fell. The purchase of tar remained just in demand. This week, the auction price of coal tar in the mainstream market fell, of which the price in Shanxi was 4550-4600 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton lower than the auction price last week.

Supply: The operating rate of coking enterprises is steadily increasing, and the supply of tar is stable

Supply: High temperature coal tar is one of the main by-products in the process of coke production. Monitoring the operation of coking enterprises can intuitively understand the supply of coal tar. From the figure above, we can see that since February 2023, the operation rate of coking enterprises has continued to rise steadily. At present, the operation rate is close to 80% of the peak season. At present, the supply of coal tar is relatively adequate. Due to the recent decline in coking coal prices, coking enterprises have experienced a decrease in furnace entry costs and a recovery in profits. The operating rate has continued to slightly increase this week.

Demand: Prices of deeply processed products mostly decrease

Demand: Industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil, washing oil and coal tar pitch are the main commodities in the deep processing industry of coal tar. In this cycle, only industrial naphthalene is higher for deep processing commodities, while the prices of other commodities are mainly lower. The overall atmosphere of the industrial chain is relatively weak, and the operating rate remains at a relatively normal level. There is still a strong demand for the tar market. Tar auction prices have mostly declined this week due to the drag of downstream products.

On April 14th, the Japanese weekly auction basically ended, and the prices of tar in the main domestic production areas were mixed. The mainstream prices in Shanxi were between 4500-4600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. In the Shandong region, it is at 4650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 150 yuan/ton. In the Hebei region, there is a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from 4550 to 4600 yuan/ton. The price in Henan region is 4600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 120 yuan/ton.

After the holiday, the price of tar has declined for 6 weeks and reached a new low for the year. Last week, the slight rebound in prices in Shanxi did not drive the market trend this week. Due to the trend of downstream commodities and future expectations, tar prices are difficult to be optimistic. However, as the May Day holiday approaches, there will be a small amount of pre holiday stocking demand in the downstream according to plan. In the future, the business community believes that with the support of stocking in the short term, tar prices will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range, and the long-term trend will depend on the actual downstream demand.