In March, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 31, the monthly decline of adipic acid was 5.61%, indicating a significant decline in the market trading focus. Currently, the market quotation range for adipic acid is 9500-9800 yuan/ton, which is about 300-500 yuan lower than the beginning of the previous month. The main reason is increased supply and relatively low demand.
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Industrial chain
The above figure shows that this month, the adipic acid industry chain as a whole is weak, with upstream pure benzene maintaining a range of fluctuations. Although prices have risen, the range is limited, and cyclohexanone has dropped by 0.25% in a volatile manner. Downstream demand is sluggish, and product trends have not changed significantly. PA66 continues to descend. Maintain in a relatively weak range.
Supply side: Continuous restart of devices and increased supply have accumulated inventory for enterprises
Market supply: In terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid continued to rise this month, and by the end of the month, the market had recovered from 60% at the beginning of the month to 70%. Supply has increased significantly this month, and the accumulation of large factories has led to a gradual decline in prices.
Demand side: no improvement in demand and weak support
The downstream of adipic acid maintains rigid demand, with weak market sentiment, high social inventory, and limited digestion. Downstream factories are cautious in picking up goods, and sporadic orders are needed to ensure normal startup requirements. Taking PA66 as an example, according to the monitoring of the Business Agency, PA66 continued to decline this month, with a range of 2.36%, hovering at the bottom of the market. At the end of the month, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang is around 20500-21000 yuan/ton. In addition, other sectors have also performed poorly, with caprolactam mainly declining, TPU weak adjustment, and the supply and demand game intensifying.
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Cost side: weak performance of pure benzene and cyclohexanone
The upside of upstream pure benzene is not very good, and this month, there has been a weak range of shocks, and the market has not emerged from a significant trend. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, pure benzene rose 1.95% this month. Due to partial overhaul of domestic devices, inventory decline has supported prices. Near the end of the month, the price of pure benzene in East China is in the range of 7150-7200 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexanone fell slightly. Although the decline this month was only 0.25%, it has been declining for two consecutive months, with the cumulative market decline exceeding 3%. Overall, the cost side is mixed.
Future prospects
Adipic acid analysts from Business News believe that, in terms of cost, there are still macro factors affecting crude oil in the near future, with a high probability of severe shocks. The impact rate on the domestic chemical market may remain weak, and it is difficult for upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone to perform well. Overall, the game between supply and demand will continue. From the perspective of the supply side, the two units faced maintenance in April, and the supply pressure may ease in the later stage. However, it is difficult for the demand side materials to improve significantly. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid is expected to continue the weak market.
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