Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 6.25%.

The domestic paraxylene supply is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is about 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 29%, and the external price of PX has fallen slightly recently. As of the 16th, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 998-1000 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1023-1025 dollars/ton CFR China. The external price was negative for the domestic market. The recent operating rate of PX plants in Asia was normal. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene plants in Asia was about 60%, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market was temporarily stable.

The price of crude oil rose slightly this week. As of the 16th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.49/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $85.14/barrel. The earthquake in Türkiye caused the interruption of transit crude oil exports, and the oil fields in Norway, Colombia and Kazakhstan reduced production to varying degrees, leading to the rise of crude oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report disclosed on February 15 that in the first half of 2023, the global oil supply is expected to exceed the demand, and the Federal Reserve’s continued interest rate increase will help the trend of inflation to slow down. The growth of Asian demand has led to the rise of international oil prices, and the domestic paraxylene market price is temporarily stable due to the high crude oil price.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market declined this week. As of the 17th, the average price of the PTA market was 5500-5550 yuan/ton, down 1.77%. In terms of PTA supply, PTA starts this week are relatively stable. At present, the industry starts around 80%. Affected by the rise of crude oil price, the PTA market price decline is limited. Many downstream polyester enterprises are still actively resuming work, the operating rate is in the process of gradual improvement, and the consumption of PTA is rising. In terms of terminal weaving, the operating rate is also in the process of seasonal increase. As of February 15, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has increased to more than 50%. However, because there was a round of centralized replenishment in the downstream before the Spring Festival, the stock of raw materials was mostly not low, and the order performance of the terminal was poor. The willingness and potential to continue replenishment after the year were low, and the recovery rate of demand was slow. On the whole, the downstream market recovered slowly, and the price trend of paraxylene was temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the Business Agency, believes that the current oil market is playing a long and short game, and the recovery of demand in Asia has brought some benefits, but the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States still exists, and the oil market will still face fundamental pressure in the future. The terminal downstream operating rate will rise, the downstream demand is expected to rise, and the PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene will rise slightly in the future.