Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market rose positively, and the spot price rose significantly one week after the holiday. According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, as of the eve of the holiday on January 19, the average ex-factory price of domestic EVA was 13800 yuan/ton, and as of February 6, the average price was 15500 yuan/ton, with a range increase of 12.32%.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

At present, the market of ethylene at the raw material end is stronger, and the supply end has the news of equipment maintenance of major Southeast Asian plants. The market supply is reduced, and the supplier’s mentality is strong. Downstream users purchase more after the holiday, and the domestic demand for ethylene is increased due to the impact of new projects. The market trading is good, and the prices quoted by merchants are rising. In terms of vinyl acetate, domestic factories are lagging behind in resuming work and the market is limited in stock. However, most of the downstream is to digest the pre-year inventory and contracts. The momentum of the market in the market is general, and the price is stable and small. Once the raw materials have risen and stabilized, the support for EVA is moderate.

Supply:

Since the resumption of work after the holiday, the load of domestic EVA production enterprises has increased from about 80% before the holiday to 91%, and the total output in the week after the holiday is about 41300 tons. The market supply is stable, the factory inventory pressure is low, and the supplier has some support for the spot goods. The ex-factory price of the manufacturer has risen sharply, and the auction source price has also risen. Recently, the spot price has generally increased by more than 1000 yuan/ton.

Demand:

In the early stage, the demand for EVA fell due to holidays, and in the near future, the downstream gradually resumed work, and the market trading is expected to rise. The demand for photovoltaic materials is expected to be slightly better than that for foaming materials. At the same time, downstream factories also have pre-season inventory and contracts to be digested. Next week, the demand pull may be biased to just need replenishment, but the overall direction of demand increase remains unchanged.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the recent EVA market has been rising rapidly, and the main positive factors come from the strong thrust of fundamentals. The overall strength of the raw material market supported the EVA spot market. Downstream enterprises resume work after the holiday to activate demand, replenish stock and follow up gradually, and the market traffic is expected to be good. At the same time, the EVA polymerization plant has no pressure on inventory, the ex-factory price has increased, the mentality of merchants has been strengthened, and the offer has risen. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will continue to rise due to the gradual release of demand.