This week, the lead market (12.16-12.23) moved up in a volatile way. The average price of the domestic market was 15435 yuan/ton last weekend and 15715 yuan/ton this weekend, up 1.81%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season, the price has weakened.

In terms of futures market, Lun Lead rose in a volatile range of 2140-2290 US dollars/ton this week. The market became more worried about the subsequent interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, and the macro market fluctuated greatly, driving the market up. Lun Lead’s inventory has been temporarily stable for 10 consecutive trading days. Shanghai lead rose first and then fell this week, with a range of 15450-15880 yuan/ton. On Wednesday, the news that the People’s Bank of China strengthened the implementation of the prudent monetary policy boosted the market, and Shanghai Lead rose significantly and returned to a high level.

In terms of fundamentals, lead has not changed much, and the supply and demand remain weak. In terms of supply, both original lead enterprises have resumed production and stopped production, with little change in the overall operating rate. In terms of downstream demand, after the weather turned cold, the battery production industry entered the seasonal slack season again, with a significant decline in the operating rate and the demand for lead ingots. The market price rose significantly this week, and traders were reluctant to sell. The discussion was relatively flat when the market was high. In general, the lead ingot market has entered a seasonal slack season. The lead market has shown weak supply and demand. The short-term trend continues to follow the fluctuation of macro factors, and there is still some room for decline in the long term.

On December 25, the non-ferrous index stood at 1200, unchanged from yesterday, 21.98% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1538 (2021-10-18), and 97.69% higher than the lowest point of 607 on November 24, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 15 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 51st week of 2022 (12.19-12.23), with nickel (3.25%), dysprosium (2.91%) and silver (2.74%) in the top three. There were five kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, and the top three products with a decline were zinc (-2.65%), metal silicon (-1.48%) and electrolytic manganese (-0.57%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.7%.