Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend of this week dropped sharply. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 7450 yuan/ton, down 10.24% from the early week’s price of 8300 yuan/ton, up 11.19% year on year.

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the price of PX external market has declined. As of August 8, the closing price of paraxylene market in Asia was 874-876 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 892-894 dollars/ton CFR China. The decline of external market price is bad for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has slightly increased. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has increased, and the domestic market price of paraxylene has declined.

This week, the crude oil price trend declined. As of August 8, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 71.46 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 76.15 dollars/barrel. Due to the performance of some US economic data exceeding expectations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike still exists, which suppresses the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil dropped sharply, which affected the domestic market price of paraxylene.

The downstream PTA market price fell sharply this week, and the average PTA market price was 5100-5200 yuan/ton as of the 9th day. In terms of PTA supply, the new production capacity was put into operation later than the market expectation. At present, two sets of new units have not been put into operation substantially. However, some units were restarted, of which the 350000 ton Yizheng chemical fiber unit was overhauled on November 4 and restarted on December 7. The 700000t unit of Yadong Petrochemical was overhauled on November 27, and it is planned to restart on December 12. At present, the industry starts at around 66%. Under the pressure of high inventory and cash flow recovery, the downstream polyester industry passively decreased and increased. In the textile terminal market, demand remained weak in the off-season, and new orders at the terminal continued to decline. Since the beginning of November, with the terminal texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the weaving manufacturers’ holidays, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped below 50%. On the whole, the downstream market is weak, which has affected the domestic market price of paraxylene.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current crude oil market is a long short game, and the short-term price still has a downward trend. The terminal downstream operating rate is lower, and downstream demand is expected to decline. The contradiction between strong supply and weak demand for PTA is prominent, and there is downward pressure on the price. It is expected that the price of paraxylene in the market will remain low in the future.